Household response to an extreme shock: Evidence on the immediate impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on economic outcomes and well-being in rural Uganda.
Household response to an extreme shock: Evidence on the immediate impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on economic outcomes and well-being in rural Uganda.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105318
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发表时间：
2021-04
影响因子：
6.9
通讯作者：
Riley E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mahmud M;Riley E
我们提供证据，说明新型冠状病毒封城对乌干达农村家庭样本的经济和福祉影响。我们的样本包括从乌干达西部114个乡村随机抽取的1，277个家庭，并于2020年3月初，即封锁前进行了面对面调查。我们于2020年5月跟进该样本，并透过电话联络超过85%的受访者。我们发现，由于封锁后家庭企业利润和劳动力收入几乎被抹去，家庭非农收入大幅下降了60%。家庭以三种主要方式应对收入损失。第一，每个成年人的食物支出减少了40%。第二，他们用掉了近50%的储蓄，借了更多的钱，但还没有清算固定资产或卖掉牲畜。第三，它们增加了对家庭农场和牲畜的家庭劳动力供应总量，弥补了对企业和家庭外劳动力供应的减少。我们发现，由于这一点，幸福感下降：错过一顿饭的可能性增加，对生活质量的满意度下降，与配偶发生重大争吵的可能性增加，以及村里亲密伴侣暴力侵害妇女的频率增加。封锁对基线时较富裕的家庭的负面影响更大，因为这些家庭更依赖企业和工薪收入。这些结果是首批显示封锁对农村人口产生巨大负面影响的结果之一。我们的研究结果对乌干达和其他发展中国家的政策制定者很重要，因为它们表明农村家庭需要收入和消费支持。
We provide evidence on the economic and well-being impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on a sample of households in rural Uganda. Our sample consists of 1,277 households randomly drawn from 114 rural villages in western Uganda and surveyed in-person in early March 2020, just before the lockdown. We followed up with this sample in May 2020, reaching over 85% of them by phone. We find a large decline of 60% in household non-farm income due to household enterprise profits and labour income being almost wiped-out post the lockdown. Households respond to this loss of income in three key ways. One, there is a 40% decrease in food expenditure per adult equivalent. Two, they use up nearly 50% of their savings and borrow more, but have not yet liquidated their fixed assets or sold livestock. Three, they increase total household labour supply to household farm and livestock, more than making up for the decline in supply to enterprises and labour outside the household. We find a decrease in well-being as a result of this: there is an increase in the likelihood of missing a meal, a decline in reported satisfaction with quality of life, a higher likelihood of having a major argument with their spouse and an increase in perceived frequency of intimate partner violence against women in the village. The negative effects of the lockdown are greater for households that were wealthier at baseline, since these households were more reliant on enterprise and salaried income. These results were one of the first to show a large negative impact of the lockdown for a rural population. Our findings are important to policy makers in Uganda and other developing countries as they suggest income and consumption support is needed for rural households.
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