Calibration and uncertainty analysis of a hydrological model based on cuckoo search and the M-GLUE method
Calibration and uncertainty analysis of a hydrological model based on cuckoo search and the M-GLUE method
复制标题
基于布谷鸟搜索和M-GLUE方法的水文模型标定和不确定性分析
DOI：
10.1007/s00704-018-2586-2
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发表时间：
2018-08
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Bo Ming
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hongxue Zhang;Jianxia Chang;Lianpeng Zhang;Yimin Wang;Bo Ming
流域水文模型被认为是模拟径流的有力工具，但存在许多不确定性。本文采用基于地形的水文模型TOPMODEL作为水文模型，应用广义似然不确定性估计(GLUE)和多准则GLUE(M-GLUE)方法评价模型参数对径流模拟的不确定性影响，并用3个气候模型研究气象输入数据的不确定性影响。提出了一种新的参数标定方法(杜鹃搜索算法)。以北洛河流域为例，对仿真结果进行了分析，结果表明，杜鹃搜索算法在优化模型参数方面是可行和有效的。用Morris方法和GLUE方法对参数的敏感性进行了分析，这两种方法一致地证明了TopModel中存在三个敏感参数。此外，M-GLUE方法的结果优于GLUE方法，两种方法都能有效地分析参数的不确定性。3种气候模式预测的降水量和潜在蒸发量均呈增加趋势，其中北京气候中心气候系统模式(BCC-CSM1.1)模拟的年平均径流量最优，其次是国家气象中心地球系统模式(CNRM-CM5)和加拿大地球系统模式(CanESM2)。然而，这三种方法得到的结果都大于基线周期值，说明水文模型输入数据的多样性导致了径流模拟的不确定性。
The watershed hydrological model is regarded as a powerful tool for simulating streamflow, but it is subject to many uncertainties. TOPMODEL (TOPography-based hydrological MODEL) is used as hydrological modeling in this paper; general likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and multi-criteria GLUE (M-GLUE) methods are applied to evaluate the uncertain effect of model parameters on streamflow simulation, and three climate models are used to investigate the uncertain effect of meteorological input data. A new parameter calibration method (cuckoo search algorithm) is proposed in this study. Taking Beiluo River basin as a study case, analysis of the simulation results reveals that the cuckoo search algorithm is applicable and effective in optimizing the model parameters. The Morris and GLUE methods are employed to analyze the sensitivity of the parameters, and the two methods consistently demonstrated that there are three sensitive parameters in TOPMODEL. Additionally, the results of M-GLUE method are superior to the GLUE method, and both methods can effectively analyze the uncertainty of parameters. The precipitation and potential evaporation predicted by the three climate models exhibit an increasing trend, and the simulated average annual streamflow of the climate system model of the Beijing Climate Center (BCC-CSM1.1) is optimal and followed by Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Earth system model (CNRM-CM5) and Canadian Earth System Molde (CanESM2). However, results obtained by all the three methods are greater than the baseline period value, indicating that the diverse input data of the hydrological model lead to uncertainty in the streamflow simulation.
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DOI：
10.1080/02626669809492117
发表时间：
1998-04
期刊：
Hydrological Sciences Journal-journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques
影响因子：
--
作者：
R. Romanowicz;K. Beven
通讯作者：
R. Romanowicz;K. Beven
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
U. Okkan;O. Fistikoglu
通讯作者：
U. Okkan;O. Fistikoglu
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Ming Bo;Liu Pan;Cheng Lei;Zhou Yanlai;Wang Xianxun
通讯作者：
Wang Xianxun
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
S. Samadi;C. Wilson;H. Moradkhani
通讯作者：
S. Samadi;C. Wilson;H. Moradkhani
影响因子：
4.7
作者：
Blasone, Roberta-Serena;Vrugt, Jasper A.;Zyvoloski, George A.
通讯作者：
Zyvoloski, George A.