A Demographic Deficit? Local Population Aging and Access to Services in Rural America, 1990-2010.

A Demographic Deficit? Local Population Aging and Access to Services in Rural America, 1990-2010.
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DOI:
10.1111/ruso.12117
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发表时间:
2017-03
期刊:
影响因子:
2.3
通讯作者:
Kulcsar LJ
Kulcsar LJ
中科院分区:
法学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Thiede B;Brown DL;Sanders SR;Glasgow N;Kulcsar LJ

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美国许多农村社区正在经历人口老龄化,中位年龄的增加和自然人口下降的高发生率就证明了这一点。这些人口结构的变化对这些社区居民日常生活的影响很少受到关注。我们在当前的研究中通过研究 1990 年至 2010 年间美国农村人口老龄化与服务提供机构可用性之间的关系来解决这个问题。我们主要使用来自美国人口普查局和劳工统计局的数据,估计了一系列固定效应回归模型,以确定年龄中位数与扣除总人口和其他因素变化后的机构数量之间的关系。我们发现县中位年龄与服务提供机构总数以及大多数特定服务类型的数量之间存在显着但非线性的关系。我们发现总人口规模对我们所有的模型都有积极的影响。这种总人口效应与其他研究一致,但我们观察到的年龄结构的独立影响代表了一项新颖的发现,表明年龄结构是当地农村发展和社区福祉的一个显着因素。
Population aging is being experienced by many rural communities in the U.S., as evidenced by increases in the median age and the high incidence of natural population decrease. The implications of these changes in population structure for the daily lives of the residents in such communities have received little attention. We address this issue in the current study by examining the relationship between population aging and the availability of service-providing establishments in the rural U.S. between 1990 and 2010. Using data mainly from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we estimate a series of fixed-effects regression models to identify the relationship between median age and establishment counts net of changes in overall population and other factors. We find a significant, but non-linear relationship between county median age and the total number of service-providing establishments, and counts of most specific types of services. We find a positive effect of total population size across all of our models. This total population effect is consistent with other research, but the independent effects of age structure that we observe represent a novel finding and suggest that age structure is a salient factor in local rural development and community wellbeing.
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