A new world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2010.
A new world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2010.
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DOI：
10.1186/1475-2875-10-378
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发表时间：
2011-12-20
期刊：
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Hay SI
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gething PW;Patil AP;Smith DL;Guerra CA;Elyazar IR;Johnston GL;Tatem AJ;Hay SI
传播强度影响到疟疾流行病学的几乎所有方面以及疟疾对人口的影响。传播强度图对于确定处于不同风险水平的人群和客观地评价疾病控制方案是必要的。为了在业务上保持相关性，这些地图必须经常更新。继2007年全球首次绘制恶性疟原虫疟疾地方性分布图之后，本文介绍了2010年新世界地图的生成。这种分析扩展到提供了第一个全球估计的其他两个指标的传播强度的恶性疟原虫，支持当代疟疾控制问题：昆虫接种率（PfEIR）和基本生殖数（PfR）。收集了43个疟疾流行国家13，449个行政单位的年度寄生虫发病率数据，以确定2010年恶性疟原虫传播的空间界限，并在基于模型的地统计（MBG）预测中使用了22，212次恶性疟原虫寄生虫率（PfPR）调查，以在这些界限内创建连续的当代疟疾流行面。开发了一套传输模型，将PfPR与PfEIR和PfR联系起来，并将这些模型与现场数据拟合。这些模型与PfPR地图相结合，以创建PfEIR和PfR的新的全球预测。所有输出图均包括测量的不确定性。据估计，全世界分别有11.3亿和14.4亿人面临不稳定和稳定的恶性疟原虫疟疾风险。据预测，大部分地方病世界的PfEIR中位数小于1，PfRc中位数小于2。这两个指标的值超过10几乎是非洲独有的。PfEIR和PfR中描述的不确定性在强传输区域很大。2010年作为全球疟疾卫生政策的一个评估里程碑，具有特别重要的意义。这里介绍的地图有助于控制和消除决定的合理基础，并可作为全球卫生界展望2015年下一系列里程碑时的基线评估。
Transmission intensity affects almost all aspects of malaria epidemiology and the impact of malaria on human populations. Maps of transmission intensity are necessary to identify populations at different levels of risk and to evaluate objectively options for disease control. To remain relevant operationally, such maps must be updated frequently. Following the first global effort to map Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity in 2007, this paper describes the generation of a new world map for the year 2010. This analysis is extended to provide the first global estimates of two other metrics of transmission intensity for P. falciparum that underpin contemporary questions in malaria control: the entomological inoculation rate (PfEIR) and the basic reproductive number (PfR). Annual parasite incidence data for 13,449 administrative units in 43 endemic countries were sourced to define the spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission in 2010 and 22,212 P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys were used in a model-based geostatistical (MBG) prediction to create a continuous contemporary surface of malaria endemicity within these limits. A suite of transmission models were developed that link PfPR to PfEIR and PfR and these were fitted to field data. These models were combined with the PfPR map to create new global predictions of PfEIR and PfR. All output maps included measured uncertainty. An estimated 1.13 and 1.44 billion people worldwide were at risk of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria, respectively. The majority of the endemic world was predicted with a median PfEIR of less than one and a median PfRc of less than two. Values of either metric exceeding 10 were almost exclusive to Africa. The uncertainty described in both PfEIR and PfR was substantial in regions of intense transmission. The year 2010 has a particular significance as an evaluation milestone for malaria global health policy. The maps presented here contribute to a rational basis for control and elimination decisions and can serve as a baseline assessment as the global health community looks ahead to the next series of milestones targeted at 2015.
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影响因子：
--
作者：
Elyazar, Iqbal R. F.;Hay, Simon I.;Baird, J. Kevin
通讯作者：
Baird, J. Kevin
DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2007.76.956
发表时间：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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