Latent coinfection and the maintenance of strain diversity.

Latent coinfection and the maintenance of strain diversity.
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DOI:
10.1007/s11538-008-9361-y
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发表时间:
2009-01
影响因子:
3.5
通讯作者:
Murray, Megan
Murray, Megan
中科院分区:
数学4区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Colijn, Caroline;Cohen, Ted;Murray, Megan

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菌株分化和分型技术使检测病原体的遗传多样性成为可能,无论是在单个宿主内部还是在社区内。一个宿主被多个病原菌菌株共感染可能会通过宿主内部和宿主之间复杂的相互作用在种群水平上影响这些菌株的相对频率;在潜伏期较长的传染病中,潜伏期内的菌株间竞争可能在疾病动力学中发挥重要作用。我们证明了包含一类潜伏的共感染个体的SEIR模型可以具有与没有共感染的模型显著不同的长期动力学,并且共感染可以极大地促进菌株的稳定共存。我们使用一个与结核病相关的模型来演示这些动力学,在该模型中,人们可能会同时经历药物敏感和耐药菌株的潜在合并感染。利用这个模型,我们证明了潜在的混合感染状态的存在使得针对潜伏期的疾病控制干预可能促进耐药的出现。
Technologies for strain differentiation and typing have made it possible to detect genetic diversity of pathogens, both within individual hosts and within communities. Coinfection of a host by more than one pathogen strain may affect the relative frequency of these strains at the population level through complex within- and between-host interactions; in infectious diseases that have a long latent period, interstrain competition during latency is likely to play an important role in disease dynamics. We show that SEIR models that include a class of latently coinfected individuals can have markedly different long-term dynamics than models without coinfection, and that coinfection can greatly facilitate the stable coexistence of strains. We demonstrate these dynamics using a model relevant to tuberculosis in which people may experience latent coinfection with both drug sensitive and drug resistant strains. Using this model, we show that the existence of a latent coinfected state allows the possibility that disease control interventions that target latency may facilitate the emergence of drug resistance.
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