Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease in Patients With Lupus Nephritis, 1971-2015: A Systematic Review and Bayesian Meta-Analysis.
Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease in Patients With Lupus Nephritis, 1971-2015: A Systematic Review and Bayesian Meta-Analysis.
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DOI：
10.1002/art.39594
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发表时间：
2016-06
影响因子：
13.3
通讯作者：
Ward, Michael M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tektonidou, Maria G.;Dasgupta, Abhijit;Ward, Michael M.
终末期肾病（ESRD）是狼疮性肾炎的主要后果，但这种风险如何随时间变化尚不清楚。我们进行了这项系统性综述，以检查1971年至2015年狼疮肾炎成人中ESRD的变化，并估计当代患者中ESRD的风险。我们检索了PubMed、Embase和科克伦系统评价数据库中关于狼疮性肾炎成人ESRD的队列研究和临床试验。我们分别分析了发达国家和发展中国家的研究。结局是狼疮性肾炎5年、10年和15年时终末期肾病的概率。我们纳入了187篇文章，报告了18，309例患者。在发达国家，ESRD的5年风险从1970-1979年的16%（95%置信区间[95% CI] 14-17%）下降到20世纪90年代中期的11%（95% CI 10-12%），然后趋于稳定。10年和15年的ESRD风险在20世纪70年代和80年代急剧下降，但在1993-1997年也趋于平稳，在21世纪末显著增加。1980年后的风险降低与环磷酰胺的使用增加相吻合。发展中国家的15年ESRD风险高于发达国家。IV型狼疮性肾炎患者患终末期肾病的风险最大，在2000年代的15年风险为44%。狼疮性肾炎的ESRD风险在20世纪70年代至90年代中期有所改善，然后趋于稳定，在21世纪后期有所增加。这种模式表明，目前的治疗方法的有效性或可获得性有限。
End-stage renal disease (ESRD) is a major consequence of lupus nephritis, but how this risk has changed over time is unknown. We conducted this systematic review to examine changes in ESRD among adults with lupus nephritis from 1971 to 2015 and to estimate risks of ESRD among contemporary patients. We searched PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for cohort studies and clinical trials on ESRD in adults with lupus nephritis. We analyzed studies from developed and developing countries separately. The outcome was probability of ESRD at 5, 10, and 15 years of lupus nephritis. We included 187 articles that reported on 18,309 patients. In developed countries, the 5-year risk of ESRD decreased from 16% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 14–17%) in 1970–1979 to 11% (95% CI 10–12%) in the mid-1990s and then plateaued. ESRD risks at 10 years and 15 years showed steeper declines in the 1970s and 1980s but also plateaued in 1993–1997, with a notable increase in the late 2000s. The decrease in risk after 1980 coincided with increased use of cyclophosphamide. The 15-year ESRD risk was higher in developing countries than in developed countries. Patients with class IV lupus nephritis had the greatest risk of ESRD, with a 15-year risk of 44% during the 2000s. Risks of ESRD in lupus nephritis improved between the 1970s and the mid-1990s and then plateaued, with an increase in the late 2000s. This pattern suggests limitations in the effectiveness of, or access to, current treatments.
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影响因子：
27.4
作者：
Bertsias GK;Tektonidou M;Amoura Z;Aringer M;Bajema I;Berden JH;Boletis J;Cervera R;Dörner T;Doria A;Ferrario F;Floege J;Houssiau FA;Ioannidis JP;Isenberg DA;Kallenberg CG;Lightstone L;Marks SD;Martini A;Moroni G;Neumann I;Praga M;Schneider M;Starra A;Tesar V;Vasconcelos C;van Vollenhoven RF;Zakharova H;Haubitz M;Gordon C;Jayne D;Boumpas DT;European League Against Rheumatism and European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association
通讯作者：
European League Against Rheumatism and European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association
影响因子：
4.7
作者：
Hahn, Bevra H.;McMahon, Maureen A.;Wilkinson, Alan;Wallace, W. Dean;Daikh, David I.;Fitzgerald, John D.;Karpouzas, George A.;Merrill, Joan T.;Wallace, Daniel J.;Yazdany, Jinoos;Ramsey-Goldman, Rosalind;Singh, Karandeep;Khalighi, Mazdak;Choi, Soo-In;Gogia, Maneesh;Kafaja, Suzanne;Kamgar, Mohammad;Lau, Christine;Martin, William J.;Parikh, Sefali;Peng, Justin;Rastogi, Anjay;Chen, Weiling;Grossman, Jennifer M.
通讯作者：
Grossman, Jennifer M.
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Lateef A;Petri M
通讯作者：
Petri M
DOI：
10.2147/ijnrd.s34299
发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
2
作者：
Haddiya I;Hamzaoui H;Tachfouti N;Hamany ZA;Radoui A;Zbiti N;Amar Y;Rhou H;Benamar L;Ouzeddoun N;Bayahia R
通讯作者：
Bayahia R
影响因子：
5.5
作者：
Croca, Sara C.;Rodrigues, Teresa;Isenberg, David A.
通讯作者：
Isenberg, David A.