Forecasting demand for maternal influenza immunization in low- and lower-middle-income countries.
Forecasting demand for maternal influenza immunization in low- and lower-middle-income countries.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0199470
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Pecenka C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Debellut F;Hendrix N;Ortiz JR;Lambach P;Neuzil KM;Bhat N;Pecenka C
尽管世界卫生组织（世卫组织）提出了建议，但低收入和中低收入国家的孕妇季节性流感免疫接种仍然有限。世卫组织/适宜卫生技术组织产妇流感免疫项目的设立是为了查明和解决在资源匮乏的情况下向孕妇提供流感疫苗的障碍。为了更好地了解这一目标群体的潜在需求，我们开发了一个模型，模拟所有低收入和中低收入国家在产前护理（ANC）服务期间有资格接种疫苗的孕妇人群。我们评估了季节性和全年疫苗接种策略背景下的潜在疫苗需求，并确定了与当前疫苗生产周期和保质期相关的供应缺口可能影响免疫接种计划的方式。我们的分析结果包括2015年Gavi新疫苗支持的54个合格国家，表明2020年对流感疫苗的需求可能为770万至1600万剂，到2029年为2700万至6170万剂。如果目前季节性流感疫苗的生产能力和实际生产的趋势继续下去，全球疫苗供应将足以满足这一额外需求，尽管大多数国家将面临与供应时间有关的执行问题。
Immunization of pregnant women against seasonal influenza remains limited in low- and lower-middle-income countries despite being recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The WHO/PATH Maternal Influenza Immunization Project was created to identify and address obstacles to delivering influenza vaccines to pregnant women in low resource setting. To gain a better understanding of potential demand from this target group, we developed a model simulating pregnant women populations eligible for vaccination during antenatal care (ANC) services in all low- and lower-middle-income countries. We assessed potential vaccine demand in the context of both seasonal and year-round vaccination strategies and identified the ways that immunization programs may be affected by availability gaps in supply linked to current vaccine production cycles and shelf life duration. Results of our analysis, which includes 54 eligible countries in 2015 for New Vaccine Support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, suggest the demand for influenza vaccines could be 7.7 to 16.0 million doses in 2020, and 27.0 to 61.7 million doses by 2029. If current trends in production capacity and actual production of seasonal influenza vaccines were to continue, global vaccine supply would be sufficient to meet this additional demand—although a majority of countries would face implementation issues linked to timing of supply.
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影响因子：
158.5
作者：
Zaman, K.;Roy, Eliza;Steinhoff, Mark C.
通讯作者：
Steinhoff, Mark C.
DOI：
10.4161/hv.6.9.12587
发表时间：
2010-09-01
期刊：
HUMAN VACCINES
影响因子：
--
作者：
Amarasinghe, Ananda;Wichmann, Ole;Mahoney, Richard T.
通讯作者：
Mahoney, Richard T.
影响因子：
5.5
作者：
McLean, Kenneth A.;Goldin, Shoshanna;Torelli, Guido
通讯作者：
Torelli, Guido
DOI：
10.1016/s1473-3099(16)30054-8
发表时间：
2016-09
期刊：
The Lancet. Infectious diseases
影响因子：
--
作者：
Tapia MD;Sow SO;Tamboura B;Tégueté I;Pasetti MF;Kodio M;Onwuchekwa U;Tennant SM;Blackwelder WC;Coulibaly F;Traoré A;Keita AM;Haidara FC;Diallo F;Doumbia M;Sanogo D;DeMatt E;Schluterman NH;Buchwald A;Kotloff KL;Chen WH;Orenstein EW;Orenstein LAV;Villanueva J;Bresee J;Treanor J;Levine MM
通讯作者：
Levine MM
影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Ropero-Alvarez, Alba Maria;Kurtis, Hannah J.;Andrus, Jon K.
通讯作者：
Andrus, Jon K.