Robust and optimal predictive control of the COVID-19 outbreak.
Robust and optimal predictive control of the COVID-19 outbreak.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.arcontrol.2020.11.002
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
9.4
通讯作者：
Allgöwer F
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Köhler J;Schwenkel L;Koch A;Berberich J;Pauli P;Allgöwer F
我们以德国为例，研究通过社交距离措施来稳健和优化控制COVID-19大流行的适应性策略。我们的目标是在两年内尽量减少死亡人数，同时不造成过多的社会代价。我们考虑了德国COVID-19爆发的定制模型，该模型具有不同的参数集，以设计和验证我们的方法。我们的分析表明，开环最优控制策略可以显着减少死亡人数相比，更简单的政策下，假设准确的模型知识。在具有不确定数据和模型不匹配的更现实的场景中，使用模型预测控制（MPC）每周更新策略的反馈策略导致可靠的性能，即使应用于具有偏差参数的验证模型。最重要的是，我们提出了一个强大的MPC为基础的反馈政策，采用区间算法，适应社会距离的措施谨慎和安全，从而导致最低数量的死亡，即使测量是不准确的，感染率不能精确地指定的社会距离。我们的理论研究结果支持了最近的各种研究，表明（1）需要自适应反馈策略来可靠地遏制COVID-19的爆发，（2）与简单的政策相比，精心设计的政策可以显着减少死亡人数，同时保持社交距离措施的数量处于同一水平，及（3）长远而言，及早实施更强的社交距离措施，比过早开放及稍后再恢复更严格的措施更为有效及经济。
We investigate adaptive strategies to robustly and optimally control the COVID-19 pandemic via social distancing measures based on the example of Germany. Our goal is to minimize the number of fatalities over the course of two years without inducing excessive social costs. We consider a tailored model of the German COVID-19 outbreak with different parameter sets to design and validate our approach. Our analysis reveals that an open-loop optimal control policy can significantly decrease the number of fatalities when compared to simpler policies under the assumption of exact model knowledge. In a more realistic scenario with uncertain data and model mismatch, a feedback strategy that updates the policy weekly using model predictive control (MPC) leads to a reliable performance, even when applied to a validation model with deviant parameters. On top of that, we propose a robust MPC-based feedback policy using interval arithmetic that adapts the social distancing measures cautiously and safely, thus leading to a minimum number of fatalities even if measurements are inaccurate and the infection rates cannot be precisely specified by social distancing. Our theoretical findings support various recent studies by showing that (1) adaptive feedback strategies are required to reliably contain the COVID-19 outbreak, (2) well-designed policies can significantly reduce the number of fatalities compared to simpler ones while keeping the amount of social distancing measures on the same level, and (3) imposing stronger social distancing measures early on is more effective and cheaper in the long run than opening up too soon and restoring stricter measures at a later time.
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影响因子：
158.5
作者：
Li, Qun;Guan, Xuhua;Feng, Zijian
通讯作者：
Feng, Zijian
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Kantner, Markus;Koprucki, Thomas
通讯作者：
Koprucki, Thomas
影响因子：
3
作者：
Casella, Francesco
通讯作者：
Casella, Francesco
影响因子：
82.9
作者：
He, Xi;Lau, Eric H. Y.;Leung, Gabriel M.
通讯作者：
Leung, Gabriel M.
DOI：
10.1098/rspa.1927.0118
发表时间：
1927-08-01
期刊：
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-CONTAINING PAPERS OF A MATHEMATICAL AND PHYSICAL CHARACTER
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kermack, WO;McKendrick, AG
通讯作者：
McKendrick, AG