Preliminary Investigation of Schmalhausen's Law in a Directly Transmitted Pathogen Outbreak System.
Preliminary Investigation of Schmalhausen's Law in a Directly Transmitted Pathogen Outbreak System.
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DOI：
10.3390/v15020310
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发表时间：
2023-01-22
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Stephens PR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Filion A;Sundaram M;Stephens PR
过去几十年的特点是，人为过程对地貌造成了巨大的改变，导致环境的变异性增加。对于在其分布边界蓬勃发展的种群，这些变化可能会对它们产生巨大影响，因为施马尔豪森定律预测它们的动态更容易受到环境变化的影响。最近，这一进化理论已经在媒介传播的疾病突发系统中得到了检验，并被证明在预测突发模式方面是有效的。然而，它尚未在直接传播的病原体中进行测试。在这里，我们提供了一个初步的测试Schmalhausen的法律使用数据的马尔堡病毒疫情源于溢出事件。通过结合两个重要方面的Schmalhausen定律，即气候异常和距离物种分布边缘，我们表明，马尔堡病毒爆发可能支持这个进化理论的一个方面，与距离物种分布边缘有一个微弱的影响爆发的大小。然而，我们未能证明气候异常对马尔堡病毒暴发的任何影响，这可能与这些变量在直接传播的病原体暴发中缺乏重要性有关。随着野生物种发生的人畜共患病溢出事件的增加，我们强调了考虑生态变化以更好地预测出现模式的重要性。
The past few decades have been marked by drastic modifications to the landscape by anthropogenic processes, leading to increased variability in the environment. For populations that thrive at their distributional boundaries, these changes can affect them drastically, as Schmalhausen’s law predicts that their dynamics are more likely to be susceptible to environmental variation. Recently, this evolutionary theory has been put to the test in vector-borne disease emergences systems, and has been demonstrated effective in predicting emergence patterns. However, it has yet to be tested in a directly transmitted pathogen. Here, we provide a preliminary test of Schmalhausen’s law using data on Marburg virus outbreaks originating from spillover events. By combining the two important aspects of Schmalhausen’s law, namely climatic anomalies and distance to species distributional edges, we show that Marburgvirus outbreaks may support an aspect of this evolutionary theory, with distance to species distributional edge having a weak influence on outbreak size. However, we failed to demonstrate any effect of climatic anomalies on Marburgvirus outbreaks, arguably related to the lack of importance of these variables in directly transmitted pathogen outbreaks. With increasing zoonotic spillover events occurring from wild species, we highlight the importance of considering ecological variability to better predict emergence patterns.
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影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Madoff, LC
通讯作者：
Madoff, LC
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0233733100
发表时间：
2003-01-21
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
LoGiudice, K;Ostfeld, RS;Keesing, F
通讯作者：
Keesing, F
DOI：
10.1002/joc.5086
发表时间：
2017-10-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
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作者：
Fick, Stephen E.;Hijmans, Robert J.
通讯作者：
Hijmans, Robert J.
DOI：
10.1002/joc.3711
发表时间：
2014-03-15
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Harris, I.;Jones, P. D.;Lister, D. H.
通讯作者：
Lister, D. H.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1208059110
发表时间：
2013-05-21
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Jones, Bryony A.;Grace, Delia;Pfeiffer, Dirk Udo
通讯作者：
Pfeiffer, Dirk Udo