Projected climate and land use change alter western blacklegged tick phenology, seasonal host‐seeking suitability and human encounter risk in California
Projected climate and land use change alter western blacklegged tick phenology, seasonal host‐seeking suitability and human encounter risk in California
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预计的气候和土地利用变化会改变加利福尼亚州西部黑脚蜱的物候学、季节性寄主寻找适宜性和人类遭遇风险
DOI：
10.1111/gcb.15269
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
A. Larsen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Andrew J. MacDonald;Sofie McComb;Craig J. O’Neill;K. Padgett;A. Larsen
全球环境变化正在对传染病系统的生态产生深远影响，人们普遍预计，在未来气候和土地利用变化的影响下，这种影响将变得更加明显。疾病的节肢动物媒介对温度和湿度等非生物条件的变化特别敏感。最近的研究重点是在预测的气候变化情景下媒介物种的环境适宜性和地理分布的变化。然而，季节性活动模式或物候的变化也可能对人类暴露风险、当地病媒丰度和病原体传播动态产生重大影响。此外，土地利用的变化很可能改变人类媒介接触率，而气候适应性变化模型不太可能捕捉到这一点。在这里，我们使用加利福尼亚的气候和土地利用预测结合季节性物种分布模型来探索西部黑腿蜱（Ixodes pacificus），北美西部莱姆病的主要媒介，对预测的气候和土地利用变化的反应。具体来说，我们研究了蜱虫寻找宿主的环境适宜性是如何随季节变化的，季节性适宜性变化的幅度和方向在加利福尼亚州的不同地区是如何不同的，以及土地利用变化如何改变整个州的人类蜱虫遭遇风险。我们发现，在不同的未来情景下，加州的病媒对气候变化和土地利用的反应各不相同。在更热、更干燥的情景和更极端的土地利用变化下，季节性寻找宿主活动的持续时间和范围在加州北部增加，但在南部下降。相反，在更热、更湿的情况下，季节性寄主寻找在加州北部减少，但在南部增加。值得注意的是，无论未来的情况如何，预计与当前人口中心相邻的已开发土地的增加将大大增加全州潜在的人类媒介遭遇风险。这些结果突出了疾病媒介对环境变化的响应的区域变异性和潜在的非线性。
Global environmental change is having profound effects on the ecology of infectious disease systems, which are widely anticipated to become more pronounced under future climate and land use change. Arthropod vectors of disease are particularly sensitive to changes in abiotic conditions such as temperature and moisture availability. Recent research has focused on shifting environmental suitability for, and geographic distribution of, vector species under projected climate change scenarios. However, shifts in seasonal activity patterns, or phenology, may also have dramatic consequences for human exposure risk, local vector abundance and pathogen transmission dynamics. Moreover, changes in land use are likely to alter human–vector contact rates in ways that models of changing climate suitability are unlikely to capture. Here we used climate and land use projections for California coupled with seasonal species distribution models to explore the response of the western blacklegged tick (Ixodes pacificus), the primary Lyme disease vector in western North America, to projected climate and land use change. Specifically, we investigated how environmental suitability for tick host‐seeking changes seasonally, how the magnitude and direction of changing seasonal suitability differs regionally across California, and how land use change shifts human tick‐encounter risk across the state. We found vector responses to changing climate and land use vary regionally within California under different future scenarios. Under a hotter, drier scenario and more extreme land use change, the duration and extent of seasonal host‐seeking activity increases in northern California, but declines in the south. In contrast, under a hotter, wetter scenario seasonal host‐seeking declines in northern California, but increases in the south. Notably, regardless of future scenario, projected increases in developed land adjacent to current human population centers substantially increase potential human–vector encounter risk across the state. These results highlight regional variability and potential nonlinearity in the response of disease vectors to environmental change.
引入的森林病原体对加利福尼亚州莱姆病风险的影响。
DOI：
10.1089/vbz.2011.0783
发表时间：
2012
期刊：
Vector borne and zoonotic diseases (Larchmont, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Swei,Andrea;Briggs,CherylJ;Lane,RobertS;Ostfeld,RichardS
通讯作者：
Ostfeld,RichardS
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Ewing, David A.;Purse, Bethan V.;White, Steven M.
通讯作者：
White, Steven M.
亚马逊森林砍伐与疟疾的联系：主要疟疾媒介达林按蚊繁殖栖息地的特征。
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2009
期刊：
The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene
影响因子：
--
作者：
Vittor,AmyY;Pan,William;Gilman,RobertH;Tielsch,James;Glass,Gregory;Shields,Tim;Sánchez-Lozano,Wagner;Pinedo,VivianaV;Salas-Cobos,Erit;Flores,Silvia;Patz,JonathanA
通讯作者：
Patz,JonathanA