Study on the Confidence and Reliability of the Mean Seismic Probability Risk Model
Study on the Confidence and Reliability of the Mean Seismic Probability Risk Model
复制标题
平均地震概率风险模型的置信度和可靠性研究
DOI：
10.1155/2017/2480940
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发表时间：
2017-10
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
Lu Da-Gang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang Xiao-Lei;Lu Da-Gang
平均地震概率风险模型在重要基础设施的抗震设计和安全性评价中得到了广泛的应用。本文对平均地震概率风险模型进行了置信度分析和误差方程推导。结果表明，平均地震概率风险模型的置信度和误差值随场地的不同而变化，大多数场地的置信度较低，误差值较大。同时，对ASCE/SEI 43-05设计参数的置信水平进行了分析，得到了基于ASCE/SEI 43-05的性能实现概率的误差方程。结果表明，ASCE/SEI 43-05准则设计结果的置信度不高，一般不超过95%，而ASCE/SEI 43-05准则不能达到均匀风险的高置信度，且目标置信度下的风险模型与ASCE/SEI 43-05准则下的平均风险模型之间的误差较大。建议今后应采用考虑高置信度的地震危险性模型代替平均地震概率危险性模型。
The mean seismic probability risk model has widely been used in seismic design and safety evaluation of critical infrastructures. In this paper, the confidence levels analysis and error equations derivation of the mean seismic probability risk model are conducted. It has been found that the confidence levels and error values of the mean seismic probability risk model are changed for different sites and that the confidence levels are low and the error values are large for most sites. Meanwhile, the confidence levels of ASCE/SEI 43-05 design parameters are analyzed and the error equation of achieved performance probabilities based on ASCE/SEI 43-05 is also obtained. It is found that the confidence levels for design results obtained using ASCE/SEI 43-05 criteria are not high, which are less than 95%, while the high confidence level of the uniform risk could not be achieved using ASCE/SEI 43-05 criteria and the error values between risk model with target confidence level and mean risk model using ASCE/SEI 43-05 criteria are large for some sites. It is suggested that the seismic risk model considering high confidence levels instead of the mean seismic probability risk model should be used in the future.
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影响因子：
3
作者：
C. Cornell
通讯作者：
C. Cornell
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Ellingwood, Bruce R.;Kinali, Kursat
通讯作者：
Kinali, Kursat
影响因子：
4.1
作者：
Cornell, CA;Jalayer, F;Foutch, DA
通讯作者：
Foutch, DA
影响因子：
1.7
作者：
B. Ellingwood
通讯作者：
B. Ellingwood
影响因子：
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作者：
R. Mcguire;C. Cornell;G. Toro
通讯作者：
R. Mcguire;C. Cornell;G. Toro