Suppressed Late‐20th Century Warming in CMIP6 Models Explained by Forcing and Feedbacks
Suppressed Late‐20th Century Warming in CMIP6 Models Explained by Forcing and Feedbacks
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通过强迫和反馈解释 CMIP6 模型对 20 世纪末变暖的抑制
DOI：
10.1029/2021gl094948
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
P. Forster
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Christopher J. Smith;P. Forster
对于1960-2000年期间，最新一代气候模式（耦合模式相互比较项目第6阶段[CMIP 6]）显示相对于工业化前的全球平均地表温度变化小于观测结果。相比之下，上一代型号（CMIP 5）在此期间表现良好。据推测，CMIP 6中看到的这种受抑制的世纪变暖是由更强的气溶胶强迫引起的。然而，我们发现这只是故事的一部分。CMIP 6中的气溶胶强迫不仅比CMIP 5中的气溶胶强迫略负，而且CMIP 6中的温室气体强迫也比CMIP 5中的弱。这些强迫差异被CMIP 5和CMIP 6集合之间气候敏感性的差异放大，这导致1960-1990年更强的气溶胶冷却和1990年以来更强的温室气体导致的变暖，使2000年后的变暖恢复到观测水平。
For the 1960–2000 period, the latest generation of climate models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 [CMIP6]) shows less global mean surface temperature change relative to pre‐industrial than that seen in observations. In contrast, the previous generation of models (CMIP5) performed well over this period. It has been hypothesized that this suppressed late‐20th Century warming seen in CMIP6 is caused by a stronger aerosol forcing. However, we find this to be only part of the story. Not only is the aerosol forcing marginally more negative in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5, the greenhouse gas forcing in CMIP6 is also weaker than in CMIP5. These forcing differences are amplified by differences in climate sensitivity between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble, which leads to both a stronger aerosol cooling over 1960–1990 and a stronger greenhouse gas induced warming from 1990, returning the warming post‐2000 toward the observed level.
具有固定表面温度的 GCM 中的有效辐射强迫
DOI：
10.1029/2020jd033880
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
Atmospheres
影响因子：
--
作者：
Andrews T
通讯作者：
Andrews T