An Atmospheric Water Balance Perspective on Extreme Rainfall Potential for the Contiguous US
An Atmospheric Water Balance Perspective on Extreme Rainfall Potential for the Contiguous US
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从大气水平衡角度看美国本土极端降雨潜力
DOI：
10.1029/2020wr028387
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
J. Smith
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yibing Su;J. Smith
在这项研究中，我们通过分析年最大可降水量和水汽输送来研究大气水分平衡分量的极端情况。我们的分析基于极值理论，使用广义极值（GEV）分布作为评估水平衡极端情况的平台。大气水平衡项的年最大值是从北美区域再分析（NARR）场计算的，从1979年到2018年的40年期间，网格分辨率约为0.3度。我们评估非平稳性的年度最大的时间序列，通过测试单调的趋势。广义极值（GEV）分布的位置，尺度和形状参数的估计被用来检查水平衡极端的空间变异性。我们专注于估计的GEV形状参数，这决定了“厚度”的分布的上尾。可降水量的GEV形状参数的估计通常指向有界分布，但无界厚尾分布的集群与墨西哥湾和大西洋热带气旋相关的可降水量异常大的记录值有关。积分水汽输送（IVT）的“厚尾”分布区域更大。非平稳GEV模型用于研究趋势对大气水平衡极端情况的影响。与热带气旋和温带气旋相关的罕见事件的混合在水平衡极端分析中发挥着核心作用。
In this study, we examine extremes of atmospheric water balance components through analyses of annual maxima of precipitable water and water vapor transport. Our analyses are grounded in Extreme Value Theory, using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution as a platform for assessing water balance extremes. Annual maxima of atmospheric water balance terms are computed from North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) fields for the 40‐year period extending from 1979 to 2018 on a grid of approximately 0.3‐degree resolution. We assess nonstationarities in the annual maximum time series through tests for monotonic trends. Estimates of the location, scale, and shape parameters for the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution are used to examine the spatial variability of water balance extremes. We focus on estimates of the GEV shape parameter, which dictates the “thickness” of the upper tail of the distribution. Estimates of the GEV shape parameter for precipitable water generally point to bounded distributions, but clusters of unbounded, thick‐tailed distributions are linked to exceptionally large record values of precipitable water associated with tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic. Larger regions of “thick‐tailed” distributions are found for integrated water vapor transport (IVT). Non‐stationary GEV models are used to examine the impacts of trends on extremes of the atmospheric water balance. Mixtures of rare events associated with tropical cyclones and extratropical cyclones play a central role in analyses of water balance extremes.
美国干旱/半干旱西南部极端降雨对大气湿度的敏感性：对可能最大降水量估计的影响
DOI：
10.1002/2017jd027850
发表时间：
2018
期刊：
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
影响因子：
--
作者：
Yang, Long;Smith, James
通讯作者：
Smith, James
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
J. Smith;Alexander A. Cox;M. Baeck;Long Yang;P. Bates
通讯作者：
J. Smith;Alexander A. Cox;M. Baeck;Long Yang;P. Bates