Patterns and causes of uncertainty in the American Community Survey.

Patterns and causes of uncertainty in the American Community Survey.
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DOI:
10.1016/j.apgeog.2013.11.002
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发表时间:
2014-01
期刊:
影响因子:
4.9
通讯作者:
Nagle, Nicholas
Nagle, Nicholas
中科院分区:
地球科学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Spielman, Seth E.;Folch, David;Nagle, Nicholas

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2010年,美国社区调查(ACS)取代了美国十年一次的人口普查。ACS现在是美国人口高分辨率地理信息的主要来源。ACS人口普查区域级数据的误差幅度平均比相应的2000年长期估计大75%。这一增长的实际影响是,数据有时非常不精确,难以使用。本文解释了为什么ACS道和块组估计有很大的误差幅度。统计概念用简单的英语解释。ACS的误差幅度归因于人口普查局做出的具体方法决定。这些决策最好被视为试图平衡财务约束与数据质量,及时性和地理精度的妥协。此外,ACS数据质量的人口和地理模式被确定。这些模式与人口普查区的人口构成有关。了解调查中不确定性的根本原因,提出了一些提高ACS可用性和质量的地理策略。
In 2010 the American Community Survey (ACS) replaced the long form of the United States decennial census. The ACS is now the principal source of high-resolution geographic information about the U.S. population. The margins of error on ACS census tract-level data are on average 75 percent larger than those of the corresponding 2000 long-form estimate. The practical implications of this increase is that data are sometimes so imprecise that they are difficult to use. This paper explains why the ACS tract and block group estimates have large margins of error. Statistical concepts are explained in plain English. ACS margins of error are attributed to specific methodological decisions made by the Census Bureau. These decisions are best seen as compromises that attempt to balance financial constraints against concerns about data quality, timeliness, and geographic precision. In addition, demographic and geographic patterns in ACS data quality are identified. These patterns are associated with demographic composition of census tracts. Understanding the fundamental causes of uncertainty in the survey suggests a number of geographic strategies for improving the usability and quality ACS.
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