Impacts of the 2015 Heat Waves on Mortality in the Czech Republic—A Comparison with Previous Heat Waves
Impacts of the 2015 Heat Waves on Mortality in the Czech Republic—A Comparison with Previous Heat Waves
复制标题
2015 年热浪对捷克共和国死亡率的影响——与以往热浪的比较
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
E. Plavcová
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Urban;Hana Hanzlíková;J. Kyselý;E. Plavcová
这项研究旨在评估2015年夏季热浪对捷克共和国死亡率的影响，并将其与前一个破纪录的1994年夏季的热浪进行比较。我们分析了全国所有人口的每日自然原因死亡率。死亡率基线是使用根据长期趋势、季节和每周周期以及识别的热浪进行调整的广义相加模型来确定的。计算与基线的死亡率偏差，以量化热浪期间的额外死亡率，热浪的定义是至少连续三天的平均气温高于年分布的第95个百分位数的时段。2015年夏天，热浪的总持续时间和总热负荷都打破了纪录。因此，2015年的主要热浪对相对于基线的超额死亡率上升的影响大于1994年上一次破纪录的热浪期间(265%对240%)。在1994年的大热浪中，年轻年龄组(0-岁)和老年人(65岁以上)的超额死亡率相当，而在2015年，老年人的超额死亡率明显更大。结果表明，在评估热浪对死亡率的影响时，需要考虑热浪的总热负荷，因为累计超额热系数比热浪期间的持续时间或平均日平均温度等其他特征更好地解释了热浪期间超额死亡率的大小。对2015年和1994年主要热浪对死亡率的影响的比较表明，最近报告的中欧与高温有关的总死亡率下降的趋势已经减弱，简单地推断这一趋势将导致即使在不久的将来也会得出有偏见的结论。需要进一步的研究，以了解在捷克共和国和其他地方预防与高温有关的死亡所需的额外缓解措施。
This study aimed to assess the impacts of heat waves during the summer of 2015 on mortality in the Czech Republic and to compare them with those of heat waves back to the previous record-breaking summer of 1994. We analyzed daily natural-cause mortality across the country’s entire population. A mortality baseline was determined using generalized additive models adjusted for long-term trends, seasonal and weekly cycles, and identified heat waves. Mortality deviations from the baseline were calculated to quantify excess mortality during heat waves, defined as periods of at least three consecutive days with mean daily temperature higher than the 95th percentile of annual distribution. The summer of 2015 was record-breaking in the total duration of heat waves as well as their total heat load. Consequently, the impact of the major heat wave in 2015 on the increase in excess mortality relative to the baseline was greater than during the previous record-breaking heat wave in 1994 (265% vs. 240%). Excess mortality was comparable among the younger age group (0–64 years) and the elderly (65+ years) in the 1994 major heat wave while it was significantly larger among the elderly in 2015. The results suggest that the total heat load of a heat wave needs to be considered when assessing its impact on mortality, as the cumulative excess heat factor explains the magnitude of excess mortality during a heat wave better than other characteristics such as duration or average daily mean temperature during the heat wave. Comparison of the mortality impacts of the 2015 and 1994 major heat waves suggests that the recently reported decline in overall heat-related mortality in Central Europe has abated and simple extrapolation of the trend would lead to biased conclusions even for the near future. Further research is needed toward understanding the additional mitigation measures required to prevent heat-related mortality in the Czech Republic and elsewhere.
DOI：
10.3390/ijerph13030284
发表时间：
2016-03-04
影响因子：
--
作者：
Urban A;Burkart K;Kyselý J;Schuster C;Plavcová E;Hanzlíková H;Štěpánek P;Lakes T
通讯作者：
Lakes T
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
O'Neill MS;Carter R;Kish JK;Gronlund CJ;White-Newsome JL;Manarolla X;Zanobetti A;Schwartz JD
通讯作者：
Schwartz JD