Highly coordinated nationwide massive travel restrictions are central to effective mitigation and control of COVID-19 outbreaks in China.
Highly coordinated nationwide massive travel restrictions are central to effective mitigation and control of COVID-19 outbreaks in China.
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DOI：
10.1098/rspa.2022.0040
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发表时间：
2022-04
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Fu, Feng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen, Xingru;Fu, Feng
COVID-19是由2019年新型冠状病毒引起的疾病，自2019年12月在中国湖北武汉首次报道以来，在全球范围内引发了严重灾难。自2020年1月23日武汉和其他地方被封锁以来，大规模的旅行限制使9亿多人在家呆了两个多月，成功遏制了COVID-19在中国的传播。在这里，我们评估了中国大规模封锁和旅行限制的影响，这些影响反映在封锁之前和期间各省之间和内部的流动模式变化上。我们使用流行病学隔室模型校准各省之间的流动流量，以量化封锁和减少疾病传播的有效性。我们的分析表明，其他省份的当地社区传播的开始和阶段取决于从震中湖北接收的累积人口流出。此外，我们还表明，同步封锁和随之减少的流动性滞后一定时间，才能对抑制传播产生实际影响。这种通过自上而下的方法以及自下而上的高度遵守实施的高度协调的全国封锁，对于缓解和控制早期疫情并避免大规模健康危机至关重要。
COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus 2019, has caused grave woes across the globe since it was first reported in the epicentre of Wuhan, Hubei, China, in December 2019. The spread of COVID-19 in China has been successfully curtailed by massive travel restrictions that rendered more than 900 million people housebound for more than two months since the lockdown of Wuhan, and elsewhere, on 23 January 2020. Here, we assess the impact of China’s massive lockdowns and travel restrictions reflected by the changes in mobility patterns across and within provinces, before and during the lockdown period. We calibrate movement flow between provinces with an epidemiological compartment model to quantify the effectiveness of lockdowns and reductions in disease transmission. Our analysis demonstrates that the onset and phase of local community transmission in other provinces depends on the cumulative population outflow received from the epicentre Hubei. Moreover, we show that synchronous lockdowns and consequent reduced mobility lag a certain time to elicit an actual impact on suppressing the spread. Such highly coordinated nationwide lockdowns, applied via a top-down approach along with high levels of compliance from the bottom up, are central to mitigating and controlling early-stage outbreaks and averting a massive health crisis.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0906910106
发表时间：
2009-12-22
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
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通讯作者：
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1244492
发表时间：
2013-10-04
期刊：
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DOI：
10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110068
发表时间：
2020-10-01
期刊：
Chaos, solitons, and fractals
影响因子：
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作者：
Aleta, Alberto;Hu, Qitong;Moreno, Yamir
通讯作者：
Moreno, Yamir
影响因子：
1
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