Use of kernel-based Bayesian models to predict late osteolysis after hip replacement.
Use of kernel-based Bayesian models to predict late osteolysis after hip replacement.
复制标题
使用基于内核的贝叶斯模型预测髋关节置换后的晚骨溶解。
DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2013.0678
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发表时间：
2013-11-06
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Wilkinson JM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aram P;Kadirkamanathan V;Wilkinson JM
我们研究了骨水泥型Charnley全髋关节置换术（THA）后463例受试者（180例骨质溶解和283例对照）的骨质溶解与聚乙烯磨损、手术年龄、体重指数和身高之间的关系，以开发基于核的贝叶斯模型来定量骨质溶解的风险。这些工具可以集成到决策算法中，以帮助个性化临床决策。构建预测模型，并计算植入物失效的后验概率。年度磨损提供了最大的歧视信息。手术时的年龄提供了额外的预测信息，并被添加到模型中。体重指数和身高并不包含有价值的歧视性信息的范围内，观察密集采样。通过五次交叉验证法对预测模型的鲁棒性和误分类率进行了评价。在THA后平均11年，这产生了70%正确的预测分类，将受试者分为骨质溶解组与非骨质溶解组。最后，将数据分为男性和女性亚组，以进一步探讨磨损率、手术年龄和骨溶解发生率之间的关系。模型中使用年龄和磨损率的正确分类率男性约为66%，女性约为74%。
We studied the relationship between osteolysis and polyethylene wear, age at surgery, body mass index and height in 463 subjects (180 osteolysis and 283 controls) after cemented Charnley total hip arthroplasty (THA), in order to develop a kernel-based Bayesian model to quantitate risk of osteolysis. Such tools may be integrated into decision-making algorithms to help personalize clinical decision-making. A predictive model was constructed, and the estimated posterior probability of the implant failure calculated. Annual wear provided the greatest discriminatory information. Age at surgery provided additional predictive information and was added to the model. Body mass index and height did not contain valuable discriminatory information over the range in which observations were densely sampled. The robustness and misclassification rate of the predictive model was evaluated by a five-times cross-validation method. This yielded a 70% correct predictive classification of subjects into osteolysis versus non-osteolysis groups at a mean of 11 years after THA. Finally, the data were divided into male and female subsets to further explore the relationship between wear rate, age at surgery and incidence of osteolysis. The correct classification rate using age and wear rate in the model was approximately 66% for males and 74% for females.
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影响因子：
3.7
作者：
FARAWAY, JJ;JHUN, MS
通讯作者：
JHUN, MS
DOI：
10.2106/00004623-200306000-00020
发表时间：
2003-06-01
影响因子：
5.3
作者：
Martell, JM;Berkson, E;Jacobs, J
通讯作者：
Jacobs, J
DOI：
10.1097/00003086-200012000-00005
发表时间：
2000-12-01
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
Schmalzried, T P;Shepherd, E F;Amstutz, H C
通讯作者：
Amstutz, H C
影响因子：
--
作者：
Gordon, Andrew;Kiss-Toth, E.;Wilkinson, J. Mark
通讯作者：
Wilkinson, J. Mark
DOI：
10.3109/17453679708996686
发表时间：
1997-06-01
期刊：
ACTA ORTHOPAEDICA SCANDINAVICA
影响因子：
--
作者：
Espehaug, B;Havelin, LI;Vollset, SE
通讯作者：
Vollset, SE