Simulation models predict that school-age children are responsible for most human-to-mosquito Plasmodium falciparum transmission in southern Malawi.
Simulation models predict that school-age children are responsible for most human-to-mosquito Plasmodium falciparum transmission in southern Malawi.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12936-018-2295-4
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发表时间：
2018-04-03
期刊：
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Wilson ML
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Coalson JE;Cohee LM;Buchwald AG;Nyambalo A;Kubale J;Seydel KB;Mathanga D;Taylor TE;Laufer MK;Wilson ML
尽管作出了广泛的控制努力，但疟疾在一些高传播地区仍然存在。要想在消除疾病方面取得进展，可能需要有效地针对作为主要传播宿主的特定人群。利用马拉维南部横断面社区研究中获得的基于分子的恶性疟原虫感染数据进行参数化，开发了一个模拟模型，以预测以下人群中人-蚊传播的比例：（a）5岁以下儿童（U 5），（B）学龄儿童（SAC，5-15岁），（c）年轻成人（16-30岁），（d）30岁以上成人。该模型结合了蚊子叮咬异质性和差异感染性（即吸血蚊子发育卵囊的概率）的年龄和配子体密度。该模型预测，SAC负责在旱季和雨季超过60%的新蚊子感染，即使他们只占马拉维南部人口的30%。年轻人是第二大贡献者，而U 5和30岁以上的成年人分别占传播的10%以下。虽然具体的预测值是敏感的SAC的相对传染性，这组仍然是最重要的贡献者蚊子感染所有现实的估计。这些结果表明，U 5儿童在维持马拉维南部恶性疟原虫传播方面发挥的作用比SAC小。假设咬同质性的模型高估了U 5的重要性。为了减少传播，干预措施需要覆盖更多的SAC和年轻人。这个公开可用的模型可以被其他人用来估计特定年龄的传播贡献，在流行病学上类似的网站与当地参数估计恶性疟原虫流行率和蚊帐使用。本文的在线版本（10.1186/s12936-018-2295-4）包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。
Malaria persists in some high-transmission areas despite extensive control efforts. Progress toward elimination may require effective targeting of specific human populations that act as key transmission reservoirs. Parameterized using molecular-based Plasmodium falciparum infection data from cross-sectional community studies in southern Malawi, a simulation model was developed to predict the proportions of human-to-mosquito transmission arising from (a) children under 5 years old (U5s), (b) school-age children (SAC, 5–15 years), (c) young adults (16–30 years), and (d) adults > 30 years. The model incorporates mosquito biting heterogeneity and differential infectivity (i.e. probability that a blood-fed mosquito develops oocysts) by age and gametocyte density. The model predicted that SAC were responsible for more than 60% of new mosquito infections in both dry and rainy seasons, even though they comprise only 30% of this southern Malawi population. Young adults were the second largest contributors, while U5s and adults over 30 were each responsible for < 10% of transmission. While the specific predicted values are sensitive to the relative infectiousness of SAC, this group remained the most important contributor to mosquito infections under all realistic estimates. These results suggest that U5 children play a small role compared to SAC in maintaining P. falciparum transmission in southern Malawi. Models that assume biting homogeneity overestimate the importance of U5s. To reduce transmission, interventions will need to reach more SAC and young adults. This publicly available model can be used by others to estimate age-specific transmission contributions in epidemiologically similar sites with local parameter estimates of P. falciparum prevalence and bed net use. The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-018-2295-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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影响因子：
2.4
作者：
GRAVES, PM;BURKOT, TR;ALPERS, MP
通讯作者：
ALPERS, MP
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Bruce, Marian C.;Macheso, Allan;Molyneux, Malcolm E.
通讯作者：
Molyneux, Malcolm E.
影响因子：
3
作者：
Mwingira, Felista;Genton, Blaise;Felger, Ingrid
通讯作者：
Felger, Ingrid
DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.1991.45.479
发表时间：
1991-10-01
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
GAMAGEMENDIS, AC;RAJAKARUNA, J;MENDIS, KN
通讯作者：
MENDIS, KN
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Coleman, RE;Kumpitak, C;Sattabongkot, JN
通讯作者：
Sattabongkot, JN