Spatiotemporal Pattern of COVID-19-Related Mortality during the First Year of the Pandemic in Brazil: A Population-based Study in a Region of High Social Vulnerability.
Spatiotemporal Pattern of COVID-19-Related Mortality during the First Year of the Pandemic in Brazil: A Population-based Study in a Region of High Social Vulnerability.
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DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.21-0744
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发表时间：
2021-11-10
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Dantas Dos Santos A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Almeida Andrade L;Silva da Paz W;Fontes Lima AGC;da Conceição Araújo D;Duque AM;Peixoto MVS;Góes MAO;Freire de Souza CD;Nunes Ribeiro CJ;Almeida Lima SVM;Bezerra-Santos M;Dantas Dos Santos A
目前，世界正面临由新型严重急性呼吸道综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）病毒引起的严重大流行。尽管世卫组织建议采取预防措施以限制其传播，但巴西忽视了其中的大部分建议，因此，我国是全球COVID-19死亡人数第二多的国家。此外，最近的研究显示了社会经济不平等与严重COVID-19感染风险之间的关系。在此，我们旨在评估COVID-19大流行的第一年期间巴西高社会脆弱性地区（东北地区）的死亡率和致死率的时空分布。应用分段对数线性回归模型评估死亡率和病死率（CFR）的时间趋势，并根据社会脆弱性指数（SVI）。空间分析采用局部经验贝叶斯估计和全局Moran指数。我们进行了回顾性时空扫描，以绘制COVID-19死亡高风险的集群。在此期间，共报告了66，358例与COVID-19相关的死亡。死亡率为116.2/10万居民，病死率为2.3%。然而，在27个城市（1.5%），病死率> 7.5%。我们观察到该地区死亡率呈上升趋势（AMCP = 18.2; P = 0.001）。此外，在SVI高（N = 859）和非常高（N = 587）的城市中观察到了增加的趋势。我们确定了该巴西地区COVID-19死亡的两个重要时空集群（P = 0.001），大多数高风险城市位于该地区的沿海地带。总之，我们的分析表明，大流行是巴西东北部几起死亡事件的原因，死亡风险高的聚集性病例主要发生在沿海城市和SVI高的城市。
Currently, the world is facing a severe pandemic caused by the new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus. Although the WHO has recommended preventive measures to limit its spread, Brazil has neglected most of these recommendations, and consequently, our country has the second largest number of deaths from COVID-19 worldwide. In addition, recent studies have shown the relationship between socioeconomic inequalities and the risk of severe COVID-19 infection. Herein, we aimed to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of mortality and lethality rates of COVID-19 in a region of high social vulnerability in Brazil (Northeast region) during the first year of the pandemic. A segmented log-linear regression model was applied to assess temporal trends of mortality and case fatality rate (CFR) and according to the social vulnerability index (SVI). The Local Empirical Bayesian Estimator and Global Moran Index were used for spatial analysis. We conducted a retrospective space–time scan to map clusters at high risk of death from COVID-19. A total of 66,358 COVID-19–related deaths were reported during this period. The mortality rate was 116.2/100,000 inhabitants, and the CFR was 2.3%. Nevertheless, CFR was > 7.5% in 27 municipalities (1.5%). We observed an increasing trend of deaths in this region (AMCP = 18.2; P = 0.001). Also, increasing trends were observed in municipalities with high (N = 859) and very high SVI (N = 587). We identified two significant spatiotemporal clusters of deaths by COVID-19 in this Brazilian region (P = 0.001), and most high-risk municipalities were on the coastal strip of the region. Taken together, our analyses demonstrate that the pandemic has been responsible for several deaths in Northeast Brazil, with clusters at high risk of mortality mainly in municipalities on the coastline and those with high SVI.
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影响因子：
3.6
作者：
Freire de Souza CD;Machado MF;Gonçalves da Silva Junior A;Bastos Rolim Nunes BE;Feliciano do Carmo R
通讯作者：
Feliciano do Carmo R
影响因子：
4.5
作者：
MohammadEbrahimi S;Mohammadi A;Bergquist R;Dolatkhah F;Olia M;Tavakolian A;Pishgar E;Kiani B
通讯作者：
Kiani B
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Desjardins, M. R.;Hohl, A.;Delmelle, E. M.
通讯作者：
Delmelle, E. M.
影响因子：
34.3
作者：
Baqui, Pedro;Bica, Ioana;van der Schaar, Mihaela
通讯作者：
van der Schaar, Mihaela
影响因子：
3.6
作者：
ANSELIN, L
通讯作者：
ANSELIN, L