Epidemiological characteristics and initial spatiotemporal visualisation of COVID-19 in a major city in the Middle East.
Epidemiological characteristics and initial spatiotemporal visualisation of COVID-19 in a major city in the Middle East.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12889-021-11326-2
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发表时间：
2021-07-12
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Kiani B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
MohammadEbrahimi S;Mohammadi A;Bergquist R;Dolatkhah F;Olia M;Tavakolian A;Pishgar E;Kiani B
2019年12月，严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型（SARS-CoV-2）最初在中国出现，导致COVID-19疾病，并迅速蔓延至全球。伊朗是中国以外最早受到重大影响的国家之一，现在正处于第四波浪潮的魔咒之下。本研究旨在通过绘制疾病的时空趋势图，调查伊朗东北部COVID-19病例的流行病学特征。该研究包括从2020年2月14日疾病开始至2020年5月11日通过实验室检测或临床研究诊断的4000名患者的数据。运用经典统计方法和地理信息系统对研究区的流行病学特征和时空变化趋势进行了研究。最常见的症状是呼吸困难（69.4%）、咳嗽（59.4%）、发热（54.4%）和虚弱（19.5%）。大约82%没有存活下来的人患有呼吸困难。最高的病死率（CFR）与心血管疾病（27.9%）和/或糖尿病（18.1%）有关。老年（≥60岁）与CFR增加近5倍相关。比值比（OR）显示恶性肿瘤（3.8）、神经系统疾病（2.2）和呼吸系统疾病（2.2）与CFR增加显著相关，如ICU住院（2.9）和LOS（1.1）也具有高度相关性。此外，空间分析揭示了发病率和死亡率的地理模式，COVID-19首先在郊区被观察到，疾病从那里迅速蔓延到市中心，在2月25日至3月6日达到高峰（每平方公里4例发病率）。死亡率在3周后达到峰值，此后感染逐渐减少。在通过时空方法调查的患者中（n = 727），205例（28.2%）未存活，其中66.8%为男性。老年人和患有严重合并症的人因COVID-19而发生严重并发症的风险更高。应用时空方法来确定传播趋势和高风险地区可以迅速记录，从而帮助政策制定者设计和实施有针对性的干预措施，以控制和预防COVID-19和其他快速传播的流行病/大流行病。
The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged initially in China in December 2019 causing the COVID-19 disease, which quickly spread worldwide. Iran was one of the first countries outside China to be affected in a major way and is now under the spell of a fourth wave. This study aims to investigate the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases in north-eastern Iran through mapping the spatiotemporal trend of the disease. The study comprises data of 4000 patients diagnosed by laboratory assays or clinical investigation from the beginning of the disease on Feb 14, 2020, until May 11, 2020. Epidemiological features and spatiotemporal trends of the disease in the study area were explored by classical statistical approaches and Geographic Information Systems. Most common symptoms were dyspnoea (69.4%), cough (59.4%), fever (54.4%) and weakness (19.5%). Approximately 82% of those who did not survive suffered from dyspnoea. The highest Case Fatality Rate (CFR) was related to those with cardiovascular disease (27.9%) and/or diabetes (18.1%). Old age (≥60 years) was associated with an almost five-fold increased CFR. Odds Ratio (OR) showed malignancy (3.8), nervous diseases (2.2), and respiratory diseases (2.2) to be significantly associated with increased CFR with developments, such as hospitalization at the ICU (2.9) and LOS (1.1) also having high correlations. Furthermore, spatial analyses revealed a geographical pattern in terms of both incidence and mortality rates, with COVID-19 first being observed in suburban areas from where the disease swiftly spread into downtown reaching a peak between 25 February to 06 March (4 incidences per km2). Mortality peaked 3 weeks later after which the infection gradually decreased. Out of patients investigated by the spatiotemporal approach (n = 727), 205 (28.2%) did not survive and 66.8% of them were men. Older adults and people with severe co-morbidities were at higher risk for developing serious complications due to COVID-19. Applying spatiotemporal methods to identify the transmission trends and high-risk areas can rapidly be documented, thereby assisting policymakers in designing and implementing tailored interventions to control and prevent not only COVID-19 but also other rapidly spreading epidemics/pandemics.
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影响因子：
4
作者：
Azizi MR;Atlasi R;Ziapour A;Abbas J;Naemi R
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
9.3
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影响因子：
8.8
作者：
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通讯作者：
Umpaichitra V