The economy-wide impact of pandemic influenza on the UK: a computable general equilibrium modelling experiment.
The economy-wide impact of pandemic influenza on the UK: a computable general equilibrium modelling experiment.
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DOI：
10.1136/bmj.b4571
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发表时间：
2009-11-19
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Tait J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Smith RD;Keogh-Brown MR;Barnett T;Tait J
目的评估大流行性流感、相关行为反应、学校关闭和疫苗接种对英国的潜在经济影响。设计一个可计算的一般均衡模型，英国经济的死亡率和发病率的各种组合，从大流行性流感，疫苗的有效性，学校关闭，预防性缺勤，使用已公布的数据。2004年英国经济（最新的经济数据）。主要结果测量不同流行病严重程度、疫苗接种、学校关闭和预防性缺勤的各种情景的经济影响，具体以国内生产总值、不同经济部门的产出和等效变化来表示。在低死亡率情景下，仅与疾病相关的成本占国内生产总值的0.5%至1.0%（84亿英镑至168亿英镑），在高死亡率情景下为3.3%至4.3%（555亿英镑至723亿英镑），在极端大流行情况下更大。学校关闭增加了经济影响，特别是对轻度流行病。如果发生广泛的行为变化，大规模预防性缺勤，经济影响将显著增加，而健康益处很少。接种大流行前疫苗可以节省0.13%至2.3%的国内生产总值（22亿至386亿英镑）;单剂匹配疫苗可以节省0.3%至4.3%（50亿至723亿英镑）;两剂匹配疫苗可以将所有疾病情况下的整体经济影响限制在国内生产总值的1%左右。结论：在决定流感大流行的经济影响方面，学校关闭与“一切照常”之间的平衡以及获得足够的有效疫苗库存比疾病本身更重要。由于害怕感染而预防性地缺勤，会大大增加经济影响。
Objectives To estimate the potential economic impact of pandemic influenza, associated behavioural responses, school closures, and vaccination on the United Kingdom. Design A computable general equilibrium model of the UK economy was specified for various combinations of mortality and morbidity from pandemic influenza, vaccine efficacy, school closures, and prophylactic absenteeism using published data. Setting The 2004 UK economy (the most up to date available with suitable economic data). Main outcome measures The economic impact of various scenarios with different pandemic severity, vaccination, school closure, and prophylactic absenteeism specified in terms of gross domestic product, output from different economic sectors, and equivalent variation. Results The costs related to illness alone ranged between 0.5% and 1.0% of gross domestic product (£8.4bn to £16.8bn) for low fatality scenarios, 3.3% and 4.3% (£55.5bn to £72.3bn) for high fatality scenarios, and larger still for an extreme pandemic. School closure increases the economic impact, particularly for mild pandemics. If widespread behavioural change takes place and there is large scale prophylactic absence from work, the economic impact would be notably increased with few health benefits. Vaccination with a pre-pandemic vaccine could save 0.13% to 2.3% of gross domestic product (£2.2bn to £38.6bn); a single dose of a matched vaccine could save 0.3% to 4.3% (£5.0bn to £72.3bn); and two doses of a matched vaccine could limit the overall economic impact to about 1% of gross domestic product for all disease scenarios. Conclusion Balancing school closure against “business as usual” and obtaining sufficient stocks of effective vaccine are more important factors in determining the economic impact of an influenza pandemic than is the disease itself. Prophylactic absence from work in response to fear of infection can add considerably to the economic impact.
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影响因子：
2.4
作者：
Cheng, C;Tang, CSK
通讯作者：
Tang, CSK
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Keogh-Brown, Marcus R.;Wren-Lewis, Simon;Smith, Richard D.
通讯作者：
Smith, Richard D.
影响因子：
11.9
作者：
Ko, Chih-Hung;Yen, Cheng-Fang;Yang, Ming-Jen
通讯作者：
Yang, Ming-Jen
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Cauchemez, Simon;Valleron, Alain-Jacques;Ferguson, Neil M.
通讯作者：
Ferguson, Neil M.
DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(03)13412-5
发表时间：
2003-05-24
期刊：
Lancet (London, England)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Peiris JS;Chu CM;Cheng VC;Chan KS;Hung IF;Poon LL;Law KI;Tang BS;Hon TY;Chan CS;Chan KH;Ng JS;Zheng BJ;Ng WL;Lai RW;Guan Y;Yuen KY;HKU/UCH SARS Study Group
通讯作者：
HKU/UCH SARS Study Group