Quantifying the ozone and ultraviolet benefits already achieved by the Montreal Protocol.
Quantifying the ozone and ultraviolet benefits already achieved by the Montreal Protocol.
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DOI：
10.1038/ncomms8233
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发表时间：
2015-05-26
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Pyle, J. A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chipperfield, M. P.;Dhomse, S. S.;Feng, W.;McKenzie, R. L.;Velders, G. J. M.;Pyle, J. A.
含氯和溴的臭氧消耗物质受1987年《蒙特利尔议定书》管制。因此，大气中的氯当量在1993年达到峰值，此后一直缓慢下降。与此相一致的是，模型预测平流层臭氧将逐渐增加，预计南极臭氧空洞将在2050年前消失。然而，我们表明，到2013年，《蒙特利尔议定书》已经为臭氧层带来了重大利益。使用一个三维大气化学传输模型，我们证明了更大的臭氧消耗比观察到的协议已被避免，有益的影响表面紫外线。在2011年的气象条件下，北极臭氧层将出现一个深度空洞，其柱值小于120 DU。到2013年，南极臭氧空洞的规模将增加40%，副极地纬度的损失将增加。北方中纬度地区的下降将继续下去，到2013年将增加一倍以上，达到15%。 1987年的《蒙特利尔议定书》对消耗臭氧层物质进行了控制，确保了大气浓度的下降。在这里，作者使用了一个3D模型，并表明这些控制措施已经产生了显着的好处，臭氧消耗比以前认为的要大得多。
Chlorine- and bromine-containing ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are controlled by the 1987 Montreal Protocol. In consequence, atmospheric equivalent chlorine peaked in 1993 and has been declining slowly since then. Consistent with this, models project a gradual increase in stratospheric ozone with the Antarctic ozone hole expected to disappear by ∼2050. However, we show that by 2013 the Montreal Protocol had already achieved significant benefits for the ozone layer. Using a 3D atmospheric chemistry transport model, we demonstrate that much larger ozone depletion than observed has been avoided by the protocol, with beneficial impacts on surface ultraviolet. A deep Arctic ozone hole, with column values <120 DU, would have occurred given meteorological conditions in 2011. The Antarctic ozone hole would have grown in size by 40% by 2013, with enhanced loss at subpolar latitudes. The decline over northern hemisphere middle latitudes would have continued, more than doubling to ∼15% by 2013. Ozone-depleting substances have been controlled by the 1987 Montreal Protocol, ensuring atmospheric concentrations are now in decline. Here, the authors use a 3D model and suggest that these controls have already had significant benefits, with much larger ozone depletion than previously thought avoided by the protocol.
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影响因子：
4.4
作者：
LEFEVRE, F;BRASSEUR, GP;SIMON, P
通讯作者：
SIMON, P
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
McPeters, R.;Kroon, M.;Levelt, P. F.
通讯作者：
Levelt, P. F.
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
SALAWITCH, RJ;WOFSY, SC;ANDERSON, JG
通讯作者：
ANDERSON, JG
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
FARMAN, JC;GARDINER, BG;SHANKLIN, JD
通讯作者：
SHANKLIN, JD
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
McPeters, Richard D.;Bhartia, P. K.;Flynn, Larry
通讯作者：
Flynn, Larry