Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design: The Decision Tree Framework
Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design: The Decision Tree Framework
复制标题
水资源规划和项目设计中应对气候不确定性：决策树框架
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Brown
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Ray;C. Brown
水基础设施项目是世界银行贷款组合的重要组成部分，也是全世界发展中国家的主要需求。许多水资源工程具有较长的经济回报期，在自然系统和人为因素（技术、人口动态、经济发展等）的行为中具有很大的不确定性。然而，与气候变化有关的不确定性促使人们重新考虑水资源开发界是否充分考虑到了未来的不确定性。本书的目标是概述世行水资源项目风险评估的实用程序，该程序可作为决策支持框架，即在不确定情况下协助项目规划的决策树。本书中描述的决策树是基于越来越多的共识，即需要基于健壮性的方法来解决不确定性及其对基础设施规划的潜在影响。这些方法强调评估单个项目及其在未来不确定性（包括气候和其他不确定性）的大范围内表现良好的能力。决策树旨在解决基本问题，为面临可能受气候变化不确定性影响的决策的项目规划者提供前进的道路。设计了决策树，使人力和财力能够得到最经济的利用。这项工作的目标是开发一种适用于所有水资源项目的工具，但也将以一种与每个项目对该气候风险的潜在敏感性相一致的方式分配气候风险评估工作。报告组织如下：第一章为绪论。第二章提供了与水系统规划相关的风险背景，描述了水系统规划中场景定义的不同方法，并介绍了决策树框架的一般结构所基于的决策缩放方法。第三章描述了决策树工具，并解释了组成该工具的每个步骤和过程。第四章以一个小水电项目为例，对决策树方法进行了说明。第五章描述了在不确定性下可用于决策的一些工具和可用于气候风险管理的方法。第六章提出了关于实施的结束语。
Water infrastructure projects are a significant portion of the World Bank’s lending portfolio and a major need for developing countries throughout the world. Many water resources projects have long periods of economic return, with significant uncertainties in the behavior of the natural system as well as that of human factors (technology, population dynamics, economic development, and the like). The uncertainties associated with climate change, however, have led to a reconsideration of whether the water development community is adequately taking into account the uncertainties that characterize the future. The goal of this book is to outline a pragmatic process for risk assessment of Bank water resources projects that can serve as a decision support framework - a decision tree to assist project planning under uncertainty. The decision tree described in this book is based on the growing consensus that robustness-based approaches are needed to address uncertainty and its potential impacts on infrastructure planning. These approaches emphasize assessment of individual projects and their ability to perform well over a wide range of future uncertainty, including climate and other uncertainties. The decision tree is designed to address the fundamental issues to provide a path forward for project planners who face decisions potentially affected by climate change uncertainty. The decision tree was also designed so that human and financial resources can be used economically. The goal of this work was to develop a tool that will be applicable to all water resources projects, but that will also allocate climate risk assessment effort in a way that is consistent with each project’s potential sensitivity to that climate risk. Report is organized as follows: chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two provides background on the risks relevant to water systems planning, describes the different approaches to scenario definition in water systems planning, and introduces the decision scaling methodology upon which the general structure of the decision tree framework is based. Chapter three describes the decision tree tool and explains each of the steps and processes that make up the tool. Chapter four focuses on a case study of a small hydropower project as an illustration of the decision tree procedure. Chapter five describes some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. Concluding thoughts on implementation are presented in chapter six.
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Matrosov, Evgenii S.;Woods, Ashley M.;Harou, Julien J.
通讯作者：
Harou, Julien J.
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
B. Korteling;S. Dessai;Z. Kapelan
通讯作者：
B. Korteling;S. Dessai;Z. Kapelan