Comparisons between mild and severe cases of hand, foot and mouth disease in temporal trends: a comparative time series study from mainland China.
Comparisons between mild and severe cases of hand, foot and mouth disease in temporal trends: a comparative time series study from mainland China.
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手足口病轻症与重症病例时间趋势比较——来自中国大陆的时间序列比较研究
DOI：
10.1186/s12889-016-3762-x
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发表时间：
2016-10-21
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Li X
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xiao X;Liao Q;Kenward MG;Zheng Y;Huang J;Yin F;Yu H;Li X
近几十年来，手足口病（HFMD）因其严重并发症的高发病率而成为亚太地区严重的公共卫生威胁。了解轻症和重症病例之间的差异和相似之处，有助于手足口病的控制。在这项研究中，我们比较了两种类型的手足口病病例的时间趋势。我们检索了2009-2014年期间中国大陆报告的轻度和重度手足口病病例的每日疾病计数系列。我们应用拟泊松回归模型将每个序列分解为长期线性趋势、周期变化和短期波动，然后分别比较两个序列之间的每个分量。共有11，101，860例临床手足口病病例和115，596例重症病例纳入该分析。我们发现，轻度病例的发病率基线每两年增加24.46%（95%CI：22.80- 26.14%），而重度病例的发病率每两年下降8.80%（95%CI：7.26- 10.31%）。这两个系列的周期变化都具有两年、一年、半年和八月周期的混合特征。但与轻症病例相比，重症病例的两年周期和年周期变化更大，开始年度流行的时间更早。我们还发现两个系列之间的短期波动在当天仍然显著相关，相关系数为0.46（95%CI：0.43-0.49）。我们发现，在不同的时间尺度上，轻度和重度手足口病病例的每日系列之间存在一些明显的差异，也有相似之处。本研究结果有助于加深对不同类型手足口病传播途径的认识，并为制定相关的疾病控制策略提供依据。
Over recent decades, hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has emerged as a serious public health threat in the Asia-Pacific region because of its high rates of severe complications. Understanding the differences and similarities between mild and severe cases can be helpful in the control of HFMD. In this study, we compared the two types of HFMD cases in their temporal trends. We retrieved the daily series of disease counts of mild and severe HFMD cases reported in mainland China in the period of 2009–2014. We applied a quasi-Poisson regression model to decompose each series into the long-term linear trend, periodic variations, and short-term fluctuations, and then we compared each component between two series separately. A total of 11,101,860 clinical HFMD cases together with 115,596 severe cases were included into this analysis. We found a biennial increase of 24.46 % (95 % CI: 22.80–26.14 %) for the baseline of disease incidence of mild cases, whereas a biennial decrease of 8.80 % (95 % CI: 7.26–10.31 %) was seen for that of severe cases. The periodic variations of both two series could be characterized by a mixture of biennial, annual, semi-annual and eight-monthly cycles. However, compared to the mild cases, we found the severe cases vary more widely for the biennial and annual cycle, and started its annual epidemic earlier. We also found the short-term fluctuations between two series were still significantly correlated at the current day with a correlation coefficient of 0.46 (95 % CI: 0.43–0.49). We found some noticeable differences and also similarities between the daily series of mild and severe HFMD cases at different time scales. Our findings can help us to deepen the understanding of the transmission of different types of HFMD cases, and also provide evidences for the planning of the associated disease control strategies.
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影响因子：
105.7
作者：
DUFF, MF
通讯作者：
DUFF, MF
影响因子：
1.9
作者：
BUCKLAND, ST
通讯作者：
BUCKLAND, ST
DOI：
10.3181/00379727-148-38506
发表时间：
1975-01-01
影响因子：
--
作者：
DEIBEL, R;GROSS, LL;COLLINS, DN
通讯作者：
COLLINS, DN
影响因子：
--
作者：
Fang, Yirong;Wang, Shuiping;Zhu, Bao-Ping
通讯作者：
Zhu, Bao-Ping
影响因子：
8.4
作者：
Ma, Edmond;Chan, King Chun;Chuang, Shuk Kwan
通讯作者：
Chuang, Shuk Kwan