Development of an irradiance-based weather derivative to hedge cloud risk for solar energy systems
Development of an irradiance-based weather derivative to hedge cloud risk for solar energy systems
复制标题
开发基于辐照度的天气衍生品以对冲太阳能系统的云风险
DOI：
10.1016/j.renene.2020.10.091
复制
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
8.7
通讯作者：
J. Kern
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Boyle;J. Haas;J. Kern
对于大量使用太阳能的能源消费者来说，辐照度的变化会导致发电和能源支出的波动。终端用户现金流的波动对他们的财务健康是有害的，尤其是在异常多云的年份。本文探讨了基于辐照度的天气导数在减轻云天气风险方面的效用，并通过将其应用于智利两个铜矿的案例研究来衡量所开发的导数的有效性。天气衍生品是一种金融工具，与潜在的天气变量相关联，作为合约持有人的保险，根据指数值执行赔款。本研究开发了一种基于每月辐照度总和和阴天排序的组合指数的合同，以减轻太阳能矿的天气风险。合同的设计和评估基于LEELO，这是一个线性优化模型，输出太阳能光伏、电池存储和电力到天然气系统的最佳尺寸，以及这些系统在给定矿山负载、辐照度和技术成本下的运行情况。结果表明，在多云的气候条件下，合同是有效的，到2030年，安装太阳能系统的矿井的效用越来越大。2030年以后，电池将变得更加经济实惠，开始成为一种更具成本效益的风险对冲机制。
For large energy consumers transitioning to high shares of solar energy, irradiance variability causes volatility in power generation and energy expenditures. Volatility in an end user’s cash flow is harmful to their financial health, especially in abnormally cloudy years. This paper explores the utility of an irradiance-based weather derivative in mitigating cloud weather risk and measures the effectiveness of the developed derivative by applying it to a case study of two Chilean copper mines. Weather derivatives are financial instruments tied to an underlying weather variable that act as an insurance for the contract holder, executing indemnity payments based on an index value. This research develops a contract with a combined index based on monthly sums of irradiance and cloudy day sequencing to mitigate a solar mine’s weather risk. The design and evaluation of contracts are based on LEELO, a linear optimization model outputting optimal sizes of solar photovoltaic, battery storage, and power-to-gas systems, as well as the operation of these systems for a given mine’s load, irradiance and technology costs. Results indicate contracts are effective in cloudier climates with increasing utility for mines installing solar energy systems until the year 2030. After 2030 batteries begin to become a more cost-effective risk-hedging mechanism as they become more affordable.
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Cebulla, Felix;Haas, Jannik;Mancarella, Pierluigi
通讯作者：
Mancarella, Pierluigi