AN ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL EXTREMES IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THEIR BEHAVIORS FOR FUTURE CLIMATE BASED ON A1B SCENARIO
AN ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL EXTREMES IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THEIR BEHAVIORS FOR FUTURE CLIMATE BASED ON A1B SCENARIO
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基于A1B情景的南美洲北部极端降雨及其对未来气候的影响分析
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
A. Lyra
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Fonseca;J. Veiga;F. S. Correia;C. Chan;A. Lyra
自21世纪初以来，巴西亚马逊河流域（BAMZ）和巴西东北部（NEB）地区一直面临着强烈的极端气候。在BAMZ，这些极端气候可以改变亚马逊森林及其在当地和偏远气候中的重要作用。本研究评估了未来两个地区的极端降雨事件是否会因温室气体排放的增加而更加强烈和频繁。采用rx5天指数的改编版本，将2089-2099年十年ETA模式输出的不同类型的极端降雨案例与1980-1990年十年进行比较。结果表明，虽然在罕见事件的情况下，预计总降雨量将减少至少1/3 (DJF)，但到21世纪末，这类极端降雨的贡献将更大，并且在这两个地区发生的频率将更高。这两个地区的强和特大事件（总降雨量和频率）都有所减少。结果表明，利益攸关方必须做好准备，应对民众在洪水和降雨减少期间的援助需求，并强调需要适应更恶劣的极端气候预测。
The Brazilian Amazon (BAMZ) and Northeast Brazil (NEB) regions have been facing intense climate extremes since the beginning of 21st century. In BAMZ, these climate extremes can modify the Amazon forest and its essential role in the local and remote climate. This study evaluated whether the extreme rainfall events in the both regions will be more intense and frequent in the future due to the increase of greenhouse gas emissions. An adapted version of the RX5day index was applied to distinguish between different types of extreme rainfall cases in the ETA model output for the decade 2089-2099 compared to the 1980-1990 decade. The results have shown that although the total rainfall is expected to be reduced by at least 1/3 (DJF) in the case of rare events, this kind of extreme rainfall will contribute with a higher amount of rainfall and will occur more frequently in both areas by the end of the 21st century. Heavy and very heavy events decrease for both areas (total rainfall amount and frequency). Results suggest that stakeholders must be prepared to cope with the population’s need for assistance during floods and rainfall reduction and reinforces the need to adapt to worse climate extremes projections.
DOI：
10.1002/joc.1863
发表时间：
2009-12
期刊：
International Journal of Climatology
影响因子：
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作者：
J. Marengo;Richard G. Jones;L. Alves;M. Valverde
通讯作者：
J. Marengo;Richard G. Jones;L. Alves;M. Valverde
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Chou, Sin Chan;Marengo, Jose A.;Tavares, Priscila
通讯作者：
Tavares, Priscila