Encounter risk prediction of rich-poor precipitation using a combined copula
Encounter risk prediction of rich-poor precipitation using a combined copula
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使用组合 copula 进行富贫降水风险预测
DOI：
10.1007/s00704-022-04092-7
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发表时间：
2022-05
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Hongrui Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Longxia Qian;Xiaojun Wang;Mei Hong;SuZhen Dang;Hongrui Wang
富贫降水的遭遇风险降水有利于洪水资源的利用和水资源的合理配置，这往往涉及到一个具有挑战性的任务-利用copula估计多个水文变量的联合概率分布函数（PDF）。本文引入三个联结的线性组合（组合联结）来研究两个流域降水的概率特征。为了验证联合联结的有效性，利用4个试验对精河流域两对相邻站点夏季月降水量和年降水量的联合分布进行了识别，并与Gumbel联结、Clayton联结和Frank联结3个单独联结进行了比较。所有的实验都表明，组合的copula比三个单独的copula表现得更好。利用联合联结公式预测了泾河4个站点夏季月降水量和年降水量的同步-非同步概率。固原-平凉站和环县-西峰站夏季月降水富-常-穷同步遭遇概率分别高达0.7和0.63。固原-平凉站和环县-西峰站的年降水富-常-穷同步遭遇概率分别高达0.6和0.59。利用组合联结公式计算了海河受水区与汉江上游富贫降水相遇概率，适宜调水的概率约为0.35。
Encounter risk precipitation of rich-poor precipitation is beneficial for the utilization of flood resources and rational allocation of water resources which often involves a challenging task—estimating the joint probability distribution function (PDF) of multiple hydrologic variables using copulas. This paper introduced a linear combination of three copulas (combined copula) to study probabilistic characteristics of precipitation in two watersheds. To validate the performance of the combined copula, four experiments were employed to identify the joint distribution for the summer monthly precipitation and annual precipitation at two pairs of neighboring stations in Jinghe River, China, which were then compared with three individual copulas, namely, Gumbel copula, Clayton copula, and Frank copula. All the experiments showed that the combined copula performed much better than any of the three individual copulas. The combined copula was further applied to predict the synchronous-asynchronous probabilities of the summer monthly precipitation and annual precipitation at those four stations in Jinghe River. The rich-normal-poor synchronous encounter probabilities of the summer monthly precipitation reach up to 0.7 and 0.63 for Guyuan-Pingliang stations and Huanxian-Xifeng stations, respectively. The rich-normal-poor synchronous encounter probabilities of the annual precipitation reach up to 0.6 and 0.59 for the Guyuan-Pingliang stations and the Huanxian-Xifeng stations, respectively. Moreover, the encounter probability of rich-poor precipitation between receiving areas of Haihe River and upper reaches of Han River was calculated by the combined copula, and the probability that is suitable to transfer water is about 0.35.
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