Study on Markov Joint Transition Probability and Encounter Probability of Rainfall and Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in the Irrigation District
Study on Markov Joint Transition Probability and Encounter Probability of Rainfall and Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in the Irrigation District
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灌区降雨与参考作物蒸散量的马尔可夫联合转移概率和遭遇概率研究
DOI：
10.1007/s11269-014-0821-x
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发表时间：
2014-10
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Weihua Xiao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jinping Zhang;Yong Zhao;Weihua Xiao
基于马尔可夫理论，分析了降雨量与参考作物蒸散量的一阶马尔可夫联合过渡概率，揭示了两者的联合过渡规律。然后利用copula函数建立降雨量与参考作物蒸散量的联合概率分布，并给出降雨量与参考作物蒸散量的条件概率。结果表明：降雨和参考作物蒸散向富庶状态和富庶状态的一阶马尔可夫联合过渡概率较大；同步遭遇情况下降雨量与参考作物蒸散量的联合遭遇频率与非同步遭遇情况下不同。所选取的frank copula显示降雨量与参考作物蒸散量的联合概率分布特征是合理的。当参考作物蒸散量小于1865 mm时，其在不同降雨状态下的条件概率排序为丰雨>正常降雨>少降雨，与降雨量小于1105 mm时不同参考作物蒸散量状态下的降雨条件概率排序相反。
Based on the markov theory, the first-order markov joint transition probability of rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration is analyzed to reveal their joint transition laws. Then using copula function, the joint probability distribution of rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration is built, and the conditional probabilities of rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration are also presented. The results show that the first-order markov joint transition probability to rich-rich state and rich-poor state of rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration is larger. The joint encounter frequency of rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration in synchronous encounter situation is different with that in asynchronous encounter situation. The selected frank copula showing the joint probability distribution characteristics of rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration is reasonable. When reference crop evapotranspiration is less than 1,865 mm, the sort of its conditional probability in different rainfall states is rich rainfall>normal rainfall>poor rainfall, which presents an opposite to the conditional probability of rainfall in different reference crop evapotranspiration states when rainfall is less than 1,105 mm.
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DOI：
--
发表时间：
2004
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
2.2
作者：
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影响因子：
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