A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges
A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges
复制标题
后格拉斯哥气候目标和可行性挑战的多模型分析
作者：
Dirk;S. Mittal;A. Gambhir;Robin D. Lamboll;H. Doukas;S. Giarola;A. Hawkes;K. Koasidis;A. Köberle;H. Mcjeon;Sigit Perdana;G. Peters;J. Rogelj;I. Sognnaes;M. Vielle;A. Nikas
COP 26格拉斯哥进程导致许多国家加强了2030年的减排目标，并宣布了2050-2070年的净零承诺，但尚不清楚这将如何影响未来的变暖。本文利用四种不同的综合评估模型（IAM），根据各国的政策和承诺，评估近、长期CO_2排放轨迹，并结合非CO_2填充模型和简单气候模型评估温度影响。我们还考虑了各国作出实现净零排放的长期承诺的可行性。虽然仅短期承诺就导致升温超过2 °C，但长期承诺的增加导致所有四个IAM的排放轨迹与未来远低于2 °C的趋势相一致。然而，虽然IAM异质性转化为实现长期目标的多样化脱碳途径，但所有模拟途径都表明了几个可行性问题，涉及减缓成本以及部署技术和措施的速度和规模。尽管许多国家已经加强了减排承诺，但它们限制变暖结果的能力仍然存在疑问。多模式分析表明，这些轨迹符合2 °C的目标，但各国可能面临实现这些目标的可行性挑战。
The COP26 Glasgow process resulted in many countries strengthening their 2030 emissions reduction targets and announcing net-zero pledges for 2050–2070 but it is not clear how this would impact future warming. Here, we use four diverse integrated assessment models (IAMs) to assess CO_2 emission trajectories in the near- and long-term on the basis of national policies and pledges, combined with a non-CO_2 infilling model and a simple climate model to assess the temperature implications. We also consider the feasibility of national long-term pledges towards net-zero. While near-term pledges alone lead to warming above 2 °C, the addition of long-term pledges leads to emissions trajectories compatible with a future well below 2 °C, across all four IAMs. However, while IAM heterogeneity translates to diverse decarbonization pathways towards long-term targets, all modelled pathways indicate several feasibility concerns, relating to the cost of mitigation and the rates and scales of deployed technologies and measures. Although many countries have strengthened their emissions reduction pledges, their ability to limit the warming outcomes is still in question. A multimodel analysis demonstrates that these trajectories are in line with the 2 °C target but countries probably face feasibility challenges to achieve them.
将全球变暖限制在 1.5°C 所需的所有选项（而非灵丹妙药）：情景评估
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Warszawski L
通讯作者：
Warszawski L