Early estimation of the reproduction number in the presence of imported cases: pandemic influenza H1N1-2009 in New Zealand.
Early estimation of the reproduction number in the presence of imported cases: pandemic influenza H1N1-2009 in New Zealand.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0017835
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Nishiura H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Roberts MG;Nishiura H
我们分析了新西兰H1N1-2009早期流行的数据，并估计了繁殖数量。我们采用了一个更新过程，占进口的情况下，说明了一些技术陷阱，并提出了一种新的估计方法来解决这些陷阱。明确解释输入性病例的感染年龄分布和国际旅行导致的传播动力学延迟，估计为（95%置信区间：）。因此，我们表明，以前的研究，没有考虑到这些因素，高估。我们的方法还使我们能够检查继发性传播发生的感染年龄作为日历时间的函数，证明了流行病开始期间的向下偏差。这些技术问题可能会损害的有用性的一个众所周知的估计-逆的时刻生成函数的生成时间给定的内在增长率。输入性病例感染年龄分布的明确建模和世代时间的时间依赖性检查在避免有偏差的估计方面发挥着关键作用，特别是当人们只有涵盖流行病早期增长阶段短时间间隔的数据时。
We analyse data from the early epidemic of H1N1-2009 in New Zealand, and estimate the reproduction number . We employ a renewal process which accounts for imported cases, illustrate some technical pitfalls, and propose a novel estimation method to address these pitfalls. Explicitly accounting for the infection-age distribution of imported cases and for the delay in transmission dynamics due to international travel, was estimated to be (95% confidence interval: ). Hence we show that a previous study, which did not account for these factors, overestimated . Our approach also permitted us to examine the infection-age at which secondary transmission occurs as a function of calendar time, demonstrating the downward bias during the beginning of the epidemic. These technical issues may compromise the usefulness of a well-known estimator of - the inverse of the moment-generating function of the generation time given the intrinsic growth rate. Explicit modelling of the infection-age distribution among imported cases and the examination of the time dependency of the generation time play key roles in avoiding a biased estimate of , especially when one only has data covering a short time interval during the early growth phase of the epidemic.
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影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Lloyd-Smith JO;Schreiber SJ;Kopp PE;Getz WM
通讯作者：
Getz WM
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Neumann, Gabriele;Noda, Takeshi;Kawaoka, Yoshihiro
通讯作者：
Kawaoka, Yoshihiro
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Nishiura H;Klinkenberg D;Roberts M;Heesterbeek JA
通讯作者：
Heesterbeek JA
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Griffin, Jamie T.;Garske, Tini;Clarke, Paul S.
通讯作者：
Clarke, Paul S.
DOI：
10.1098/rspa.1927.0118
发表时间：
1927-08-01
期刊：
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-CONTAINING PAPERS OF A MATHEMATICAL AND PHYSICAL CHARACTER
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kermack, WO;McKendrick, AG
通讯作者：
McKendrick, AG