Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission.
Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-021-21358-2
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发表时间：
2021-02-17
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Donnelly CA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nouvellet P;Bhatia S;Cori A;Ainslie KEC;Baguelin M;Bhatt S;Boonyasiri A;Brazeau NF;Cattarino L;Cooper LV;Coupland H;Cucunuba ZM;Cuomo-Dannenburg G;Dighe A;Djaafara BA;Dorigatti I;Eales OD;van Elsland SL;Nascimento FF;FitzJohn RG;Gaythorpe KAM;Geidelberg L;Green WD;Hamlet A;Hauck K;Hinsley W;Imai N;Jeffrey B;Knock E;Laydon DJ;Lees JA;Mangal T;Mellan TA;Nedjati-Gilani G;Parag KV;Pons-Salort M;Ragonnet-Cronin M;Riley S;Unwin HJT;Verity R;Vollmer MAC;Volz E;Walker PGT;Walters CE;Wang H;Watson OJ;Whittaker C;Whittles LK;Xi X;Ferguson NM;Donnelly CA
为应对COVID-19大流行，各国通过社交距离干预措施限制人口流动，从而减少接触人数，以控制SARS-CoV-2传播。移动性数据是衡量社交距离的重要指标，在这里，我们分析了全球52个国家的传播和移动性之间的关系。在73%的分析国家中，随着最初流动性的减少，传播显著下降，但我们发现，在80%的国家放松严格的控制措施后，传播和流动性脱钩的证据。对于大多数国家，流动性解释了很大一部分的遗传性变化（中位数调整后的R平方：48%，四分位数范围- IQR -各国[27-77%]）。当关系发生变化时，预测能力在放松后下降;从放松前的中位调整R平方74%（各国间IQR [49-91%]）降至放松后的中位调整R平方30%（各国间IQR [12-48%]）。在放宽严格控制措施前后流动性与传播之间存在明确关系的国家，在放宽控制措施后，流动性与较低的传播率有关，这表明持续的社交距离行为的有益影响是巨大的。旨在减少COVID-19传播的社交距离政策已反映在人员流动性的减少上。在这里，作者表明，流动性降低与传播减少相关，但随着社会距离措施的放松，这种关系随着时间的推移而减弱。
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we characterise the relationship between transmission and mobility for 52 countries around the world. Transmission significantly decreased with the initial reduction in mobility in 73% of the countries analysed, but we found evidence of decoupling of transmission and mobility following the relaxation of strict control measures for 80% of countries. For the majority of countries, mobility explained a substantial proportion of the variation in transmissibility (median adjusted R-squared: 48%, interquartile range - IQR - across countries [27–77%]). Where a change in the relationship occurred, predictive ability decreased after the relaxation; from a median adjusted R-squared of 74% (IQR across countries [49–91%]) pre-relaxation, to a median adjusted R-squared of 30% (IQR across countries [12–48%]) post-relaxation. In countries with a clear relationship between mobility and transmission both before and after strict control measures were relaxed, mobility was associated with lower transmission rates after control measures were relaxed indicating that the beneficial effects of ongoing social distancing behaviours were substantial. Social distancing policies aiming to reduce COVID-19 transmission have been reflected in reductions in human mobility. Here, the authors show that reduced mobility is correlated with decreased transmission, but that this relationship weakened over time as social distancing measures were relaxed.
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影响因子：
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