Fitting the reproduction number from UK coronavirus case data and why it is close to 1.
Fitting the reproduction number from UK coronavirus case data and why it is close to 1.
复制标题
适合英国冠状病毒病例数据的繁殖数，以及为什么接近1。
DOI：
10.1098/rsta.2021.0301
复制
发表时间：
2022-10-03
期刊：
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Wallace, David J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ackland, Graeme J.;Ackland, James A.;Antonioletti, Mario;Wallace, David J.
我们提出了一种根据英国公开数据量身定制的冠状病毒增长率和数字的快速计算方法。我们假设案例数据包含一个平滑的、可微的潜在趋势，加上系统误差和不可微的噪声项，并使用定制的数据处理来消除系统误差和噪声。该方法旨在优先考虑最新的估计。我们的方法根据英国政府公布的共识数字进行了验证，并在两周前显示出可比较的结果。案例驱动方法与权重转移量表方法相结合，监测疫情趋势并进行中期预测。利用病死比，我们对英国流行病的趋势进行了描述：B1.117（Alpha）变种的传染性增加，以及疫苗接种在降低感染严重程度方面的有效性。对于长期的未来场景，我们将未来基于局部扩散模型的洞察，该模型表明，无论瞬态有多大，在瞬态之后都会渐近到 1。这与案例数据中观察到的短暂峰值相符。这些无法用混合良好的模型来解释，并且暗示在局部网络上传播。本文是主题“模拟现实生活中流行病的技术挑战以及克服这些挑战的示例”的一部分。
We present a method for rapid calculation of coronavirus growth rates and -numbers tailored to publicly available UK data. We assume that the case data comprise a smooth, underlying trend which is differentiable, plus systematic errors and a non-differentiable noise term, and use bespoke data processing to remove systematic errors and noise. The approach is designed to prioritize up-to-date estimates. Our method is validated against published consensus -numbers from the UK government and is shown to produce comparable results two weeks earlier. The case-driven approach is combined with weight–shift–scale methods to monitor trends in the epidemic and for medium-term predictions. Using case-fatality ratios, we create a narrative for trends in the UK epidemic: increased infectiousness of the B1.117 (Alpha) variant, and the effectiveness of vaccination in reducing severity of infection. For longer-term future scenarios, we base future on insight from localized spread models, which show going asymptotically to 1 after a transient, regardless of how large the transient is. This accords with short-lived peaks observed in case data. These cannot be explained by a well-mixed model and are suggestive of spread on a localized network. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these’.
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DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa2105290
发表时间：
2021-12-16
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
Falsey AR;Sobieszczyk ME;Hirsch I;Sproule S;Robb ML;Corey L;Neuzil KM;Hahn W;Hunt J;Mulligan MJ;McEvoy C;DeJesus E;Hassman M;Little SJ;Pahud BA;Durbin A;Pickrell P;Daar ES;Bush L;Solis J;Carr QO;Oyedele T;Buchbinder S;Cowden J;Vargas SL;Guerreros Benavides A;Call R;Keefer MC;Kirkpatrick BD;Pullman J;Tong T;Brewinski Isaacs M;Benkeser D;Janes HE;Nason MC;Green JA;Kelly EJ;Maaske J;Mueller N;Shoemaker K;Takas T;Marshall RP;Pangalos MN;Villafana T;Gonzalez-Lopez A;AstraZeneca AZD1222 Clinical Study Group
通讯作者：
AstraZeneca AZD1222 Clinical Study Group
影响因子：
2.4
作者：
Ackland, GJ;Tweedie, ES
通讯作者：
Tweedie, ES
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Lau, Yiu Chung;Tsang, Tim K.;Cowling, Benjamin J.
通讯作者：
Cowling, Benjamin J.
通过非药物干预措施，SARS-CoV-2 的序列间隔随着时间的推移而缩短
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Ali, Sheikh Taslim;Wang, Lin;Cowling, Benjamin J.
通讯作者：
Cowling, Benjamin J.
DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2020.0596
发表时间：
2020-11
期刊：
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
影响因子：
--
作者：
Hawryluk I;Mellan TA;Hoeltgebaum H;Mishra S;Schnekenberg RP;Whittaker C;Zhu H;Gandy A;Donnelly CA;Flaxman S;Bhatt S
通讯作者：
Bhatt S