On the mechanisms of the recurvature of super typhoon Megi.

On the mechanisms of the recurvature of super typhoon Megi.
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超强台风“鲇姬”卷土重来的机制探讨

DOI:
10.1038/srep04451
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发表时间:
2014-03-25
期刊:
影响因子:
4.6
通讯作者:
Liu D
Liu D
中科院分区:
综合性期刊3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Peng S;Qian YK;Lai Z;Hao S;Chen S;Xu H;Wang D;Xu X;Chan JC;Zhou H;Liu D

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热带气旋是对人类危害最大的自然灾害之一。尽管在过去的几十年里,TCS的轨迹预测有了很大的改进,但仍然存在相当大的不确定性,特别是对于弯曲的轨迹。在这项研究中,我们利用区域大气模式,通过数值敏感性试验,探讨了驱动超强台风Megi大回转的物理机制。结果表明,中国西北部向东南方向的冷空气入侵是造成台风急转区的主要原因。这一发现表明,冷空气入侵可以作为预测未来热带气旋回归的一个指标。
Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the most threatening natural hazards to human beings. Although significant improvements have been made in the track prediction of TCs during the past several decades, considerable uncertainties still exist, especially for recurving tracks. In this study, we explore the physical mechanisms that drove the large recurvature of super typhoon Megi through numerical sensitivity experiments using a regional atmospheric model. The results indicate that the cold air intrusion from the northwest to the southeast of China is the main cause of the sharp turning of Megi. This finding suggests that a cold air intrusion could be taken as an indicator for predicting the recurvature of a tropical cyclone in the future.
DOI: 10.1175/mwr3199.1
发表时间: 2006-09-01
影响因子: 3.2
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