Assessing Risk in Chinese Shale Gas Investments Abroad: Modelling and Policy Recommendations
Assessing Risk in Chinese Shale Gas Investments Abroad: Modelling and Policy Recommendations
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评估中国页岩气海外投资的风险：建模和政策建议
DOI：
10.3390/su8080708
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发表时间：
2016-07
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Guo, Rui
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sun, Renjin;Lee, Wei-Jen;Dong, Kangyin;Guo, Rui
随着页岩气革命在全球范围内扩大，海外页岩气储量的未来潜力和经济利润吸引了中国投资者的兴趣。海外页岩气开发正成为中国石油企业的投资热点。然而，这个数十亿美元的企业被复杂和不确定的环境所包围。因此，本文提出了一个完整的和公开可用的模型来评估海外页岩气投资的风险。该模型的目的是解决指标权重计算和风险排序问题，为投资者提供风险信息。基于此，采用层次分析法（AHP）和熵权法获得综合权重，并采用逼近理想解排序法（TOPSIS）对目标国进行排序。首先，本文将风险分为五类，即经济风险、政治风险、地质风险、技术风险和内部管理风险。在风险识别的基础上，建立了评价指标体系，并进行了评价。其次，以中国为例，验证了模型的有效性，为投资者做出明智的投资决策提供了依据。根据研究结果，加拿大、阿根廷、美国和阿尔及利亚等低风险国家可以被认为是未来海外页岩气投资的重点目标，而投资者应该更加谨慎地对待南非和巴西等高风险国家。最后，从政府和投资者两个角度提出了优化海外页岩气投资的政策建议。
As the shale gas revolution expands globally, the future potential and economic profits of overseas shale gas reserves have attracted the interest of Chinese investors. Overseas shale gas development is becoming an investment hotspot for Chinese oil companies. However, this multibillion-dollar venture is surrounded by a complex and uncertain environment. Therefore, this paper carries out an integrated and publicly available model for assessing risk in overseas shale gas investments. The purpose of this model is to address the index weight calculation and risk ranking and provide investor with risk information. In view of this, the comprehensive weights are obtained based on an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy weight methods; and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method is performed to rank target countries. First, the paper identities five categories of risks with full consideration of the economic risk, political risk, geological risk, technological risk, and internal managements risk. Based on the risk identification, the assessment index system is established and valued. Secondly, China is taken as an example nation to use this model to prove the effectiveness of the proposed model and help the investor make wise decisions. According to the results, low-risk countries, such as Canada, Argentina, United States, and Algeria can be considered to be future key targets of shale gas investment abroad, while investors should be more cautious of high-risk countries such as South Africa and Brazil. Finally, policy recommendations are proposed to optimize the overseas shale gas investments from both the government and investor perspectives.
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DOI：
10.1061/(asce)0733-9402(1992)118:2(136
发表时间：
1992-08
期刊：
Journal of Energy Engineering-asce
影响因子：
--
作者：
S. Hora
通讯作者：
S. Hora
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
Resources and Industries
影响因子：
--
作者：
Jiang Wei-n
通讯作者：
Jiang Wei-n
影响因子：
9
作者：
Kees Berends
通讯作者：
Kees Berends
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Lei Zhu;Zhongxiang Zhang;Ying Fan
通讯作者：
Lei Zhu;Zhongxiang Zhang;Ying Fan
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1491638
发表时间：
2012-06
期刊：
American Finance Association Meetings (AFA)
影响因子：
--
作者：
F. Derrien;D. Thesmar;Ambrus Kecskés
通讯作者：
F. Derrien;D. Thesmar;Ambrus Kecskés