Harmonisation of Reliability Performance Indices for Planning and Operational Evaluation of Water Supply Reservoirs
Harmonisation of Reliability Performance Indices for Planning and Operational Evaluation of Water Supply Reservoirs
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供水水库规划和运行评估可靠性绩效指标的统一
DOI：
10.1007/s11269-016-1561-x
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Adeloye A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Adeloye A
供水水库的规划和运行性能评价通常使用基于容量（Rv）和基于时间（Rt）的可靠性指标，但由于Rv≥ Rt，这两个指标永远不会相同，因此决策往往会因权衡而变得复杂。这项研究通过协调这两个指数解决了这个问题。使用来自全球10条河流的数据，对假设的水库进行了模拟，以确定特定需求和Rt值的容量。为了协调这两个指标，即消除偏差，引入了缺水阈值的概念，缺水阈值是可以被视为构成真实的故障的最小缺水量，用于Rtevaluation;低于此的缺水量将被忽略。结果表明，缺水阈值，使可靠性偏差无效，可以高达60%的需求，这取决于径流变化，需求和指定的RT。当平均在所有的情况下分析，缺水阈值被发现是51%的需求。尽管这一数字可能看起来很高，但有人认为，在发达经济体和不发达经济体的情况下，这一数字都是合理的，在发达经济体中，水的去向不明率可能远高于51%，在不发达经济体中，大部分人口无法获得充足的供水。在后一种情况下，供水量减少50%，并保证另外50%的不间断供应将被视为令人满意和可靠，而对于前者，缺水50%，迫使人们改变浪费更少水的行为也将被视为令人满意。这项研究的意义和新奇源于这样一个事实，即它已经消除了两个可靠性指标之间的权衡的需要，从而使明确的特征供水水库性能的有效决策。
The planning and operational performance evaluation of water supply reservoirs routinely use the volume-based (Rv) and time-based (Rt) reliability indices but decision making is often complicated by trade-off necessitated by the fact that the two are never the same, with Rv≥ Rt. This study has resolved the problem by harmonising the two indices. Using data from ten global rivers, simulations of hypothetical reservoirs were carried out to determine capacity for specified demands and Rtvalues. The corresponding Rvvalues were then evaluated and the resulting reliability biases (i.e. Rv– Rt) were found. To harmonise the two indices, i.e. to nullify the biases, the concept of water shortage threshold was introduced, which is the minimum quantity of water shortage that can be taken as constituting real failure for the purpose of Rtevaluation; shortage quantities below this will be disregarded. The results showed that the water shortage threshold that nullifies the reliability bias can be as high as 60% of the demand, depending on the runoff variability, the demand and the specified Rt. When averaged over all the situations analysed, the water shortage threshold was found to be 51% of the demand. Although this might appear high, it is argued that it is plausible both within the context of developed economies, where unaccounted-for-water can be much higher than 51%, and of underdeveloped economies where large sections of the population have no access to adequate water supply. In the latter case, a reduction of 50% in water supplied that guarantees uninterrupted supply of the other 50% will be deemed satisfactory and reliable, while for the former, a shortage of 50% that forces a change in behaviour to waste less water will also be deemed satisfactory. The significance and novelty of this study stem from the fact that it has removed the need for the trade-off between the two reliability indices, thus enabling unequivocal characterisation of water supply reservoir performance for effective decision making.
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