Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming
Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming
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全球变暖1°5°C和2°C时欧洲夏季气温的内部变化
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/aaba58
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Marotzke J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Suarez-Gutierrez L;Müller WA;Marotzke J
我们使用的100个成员国的大Ensemble与气候模式MPI-ESM的全球平均温度的目标，在巴黎协定，以评估欧洲夏季平均和极端温度的可控性。我们发现，欧洲夏季气温在2摄氏度的全球变暖平均1摄氏度高于1.5摄氏度的全球变暖相对于工业化前的水平。在一个2摄氏度的世界里，欧洲每两个夏季中就有一个月会比我们目前气候下观察到的任何时候都要温暖。重现期长达500年的极端事件的日最高温度异常在全球变暖2 ℃时达到7 ℃的重现水平，在全球变暖1.5 ℃时达到5.5 ℃。在20年的较短重现期内，南欧的回报水平差异最大，我们发现那里的平均气温上升最高。相比之下，对于重现期超过100年的事件，这些差异在中欧最大，我们发现那里的温度变率变化最大。然而，由于内部变化的巨大影响，在气温升高2摄氏度的世界中，每十个夏季月份中只有四个月的平均气温可以与1.5摄氏度的世界区分开来。两种气候之间的相似性在南欧最大，而在东欧则下降到10%左右。此外，我们发现，在2 ℃的世界中，10%的最极端和最严重的夏季最高温度可以通过将全球变暖限制在1.5 ℃来避免。
We use the 100-member Grand Ensemble with the climate model MPI-ESM to evaluate the controllability of mean and extreme European summer temperatures with the global mean temperature targets in the Paris Agreement. We find that European summer temperatures at 2 C of global warming are on average 1 C higher than at 1.5 C of global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels. In a 2 C warmer world, one out of every two European summer months would be warmer than ever observed in our current climate. Daily maximum temperature anomalies for extreme events with return periods of up to 500 years reach return levels of 7 C at 2 C of global warming and 5.5 C at 1.5 C of global warming. The largest differences in return levels for shorter return periods of 20 years are over southern Europe, where we find the highest mean temperature increase. In contrast, for events with return periods of over 100 years these differences are largest over central Europe, where we find the largest changes in temperature variability. However, due to the large effect of internal variability, only four out of every ten summer months in a 2 C warmer world present mean temperatures that could be distinguishable from those in a 1.5 C world. The distinguishability between the two climates is largest over southern Europe, while decreasing to around 10% distinguishable months over eastern Europe. Furthermore, we find that 10% of the most extreme and severe summer maximum temperatures in a 2 C world could be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 C.
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Hedemann, Christopher;Mauritsen, Thorsten;Marotzke, Jochem
通讯作者：
Marotzke, Jochem