The effects of base rate neglect on sequential belief updating and real-world beliefs.
The effects of base rate neglect on sequential belief updating and real-world beliefs.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010796
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发表时间：
2022-12
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
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基本率忽视是一种普遍存在的判断偏差，被概念化为低估先验信息，并可能在现实世界中产生严重后果。这种偏差被认为反映了推理过程的可变性，但缺乏对基本率忽视的内聚理论的实证支持，该理论具有足够的解释力来解释长期和现实世界的信念。在顺序信念更新的背景下，基本率忽略的贝叶斯形式化预测，信念轨迹应该表现出依赖于证据呈现顺序及其与先前信念的一致性的动态模式。为了测试这一点，我们开发了一种新颖的“瓮和珠子”任务，该任务系统地操纵彩色珠子序列的顺序，并通过激励兼容的程序引发信念。我们在两项独立在线研究中的结果证实了连续基本率忽视模型的预测：人们表现出的信念更容易受到最近证据和与先前信念不一致的证据的影响。我们进一步发现了对噪声采样推理模型的支持，其中基本率忽略是由于对先验信念的噪声内部表示的理性贴现而产生的。最后，我们发现模型导出的基本率忽视指数（包括嘈杂的先验表征）与实验室外不寻常信念的倾向相关。我们的工作支持贝叶斯理论对连续基本率忽视与现实世界信念的相关性，并暗示了尽量减少这种普遍偏见的有害后果的策略。基本率忽视是一种常见的判断偏差，这种偏差的定义是在形成新信念时倾向于未充分利用旧信息。这种偏见可能会在现实世界中产生严重后果。基本率忽视经常被认为是医疗和法律决策以及许多其他社会相关环境中错误的根源。尽管其具有广泛的社会相关性，但目前尚不清楚当前的理论是否抓住了顺序信念形成中基本率忽视的表达，也许更重要的是人们为什么会有这种偏见。在本文中，我们找到了对一个模型的支持，该模型描述了基本率忽视如何随着时间的推移影响信念形成，表明人们的行为方式与理论预测相符。了解基本率忽视如何随着时间的推移影响信念，这表明了未来可以实施的可能策略，以尽量减少其影响。我们还找到了对一个模型的支持，该模型可以解释为什么人们首先会表现出基本率忽视。该模型表明，人们在大脑中对旧信息的表示是有噪音的，因此在某种程度上，根据其表示的噪音或不可靠程度，未充分利用这些旧信息是合理的。最后，我们表明，我们对旧信息表示中的基本率忽视和噪声的测量与现实世界的信念奇异性的变化相关，这表明这些模型捕获了可能决定现实世界环境中功能的信念形成过程。
Base-rate neglect is a pervasive bias in judgment that is conceptualized as underweighting of prior information and can have serious consequences in real-world scenarios. This bias is thought to reflect variability in inferential processes but empirical support for a cohesive theory of base-rate neglect with sufficient explanatory power to account for longer-term and real-world beliefs is lacking. A Bayesian formalization of base-rate neglect in the context of sequential belief updating predicts that belief trajectories should exhibit dynamic patterns of dependence on the order in which evidence is presented and its consistency with prior beliefs. To test this, we developed a novel ‘urn-and-beads’ task that systematically manipulated the order of colored bead sequences and elicited beliefs via an incentive-compatible procedure. Our results in two independent online studies confirmed the predictions of the sequential base-rate neglect model: people exhibited beliefs that are more influenced by recent evidence and by evidence inconsistent with prior beliefs. We further found support for a noisy-sampling inference model whereby base-rate neglect results from rational discounting of noisy internal representations of prior beliefs. Finally, we found that model-derived indices of base-rate neglect—including noisier prior representation—correlated with propensity for unusual beliefs outside the laboratory. Our work supports the relevance of Bayesian accounts of sequential base-rate neglect to real-world beliefs and hints at strategies to minimize deleterious consequences of this pervasive bias. Base-rate neglect is a common bias in judgment, a bias defined by a tendency to underuse older information when forming a new belief. This bias can have serious consequences in the real world. Base-rate neglect is often cited as a source of errors in medical and legal decisions, and in many other socially relevant contexts. Despite its broad societal relevance, it is unclear whether current theories capture the expression of base-rate neglect in sequential belief formation, and perhaps more crucially why people have this bias in the first place. In this paper, we find support for a model that describes how base-rate neglect influences belief formation over time, showing that people behave in a way that matches theoretical predictions. Knowing how base-rate neglect influences beliefs over time suggests possible strategies that could be implemented in the future to minimize its impact. We also find support for a model which may explain why people exhibit base-rate neglect in the first place. This model suggests that people’s representation of older information in the brain is noisy and that it is therefore rational to underuse this older information to some extent depending on how noisy or unreliable its representation is. Finally, we show that our measures of base-rate neglect and noise in the representation of older information correlate with variation in real-world belief oddity, suggesting that these models capture belief-formation processes likely to dictate functioning in real-world settings.
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影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Dasgupta, Ishita;Schulz, Eric;Gershman, Samuel J.
通讯作者：
Gershman, Samuel J.
DOI：
10.1016/s0749-5978(03)00080-3
发表时间：
2003-09-01
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
de Bruin, WB;Keren, G
通讯作者：
Keren, G
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
CHAPMAN, LJ;CHAPMAN, JP;ZINSER, MC
通讯作者：
ZINSER, MC
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Arechar, Antonio A.;Gaechter, Simon;Molleman, Lucas
通讯作者：
Molleman, Lucas
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Daunizeau J;Adam V;Rigoux L
通讯作者：
Rigoux L