Evolution and emergence of infectious diseases in theoretical and real-world networks.
Evolution and emergence of infectious diseases in theoretical and real-world networks.
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DOI：
10.1038/ncomms7101
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发表时间：
2015-01-16
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Bonhoeffer, Sebastian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Leventhal, Gabriel E.;Hill, Alison L.;Nowak, Martin A.;Bonhoeffer, Sebastian
理论流行病学最重要的进步之一是发展了能够解释现实宿主人口结构的方法。该研究的主要发现是，接触网络中的异质性，例如“超级传播者”的存在，加速了传染病在实际流行病中的传播。随着环境的变化和医疗干预，病原体的不断进化也使疾病控制变得复杂。然而，种群结构如何影响这些适应过程尚不清楚。在这里，我们检查传染病在经验和理论网络的演变。我们表明，接触结构的异质性促进了单一疾病的传播，令人惊讶的是，它使常驻菌株对新变种的入侵更具弹性。我们的研究结果表明，许多宿主接触结构抑制了新菌株的入侵，并可能减缓疾病适应。这些发现对疾病进化的自然史和耐药菌株的传播具有重要意义。病原体的不断进化使得传染病的控制非常具有挑战性。在这里，作者研究了宿主种群结构如何影响疾病进化，并表明异质接触网络降低了新出现的病原体菌株的固定概率。
One of the most important advancements in theoretical epidemiology has been the development of methods that account for realistic host population structure. The central finding is that heterogeneity in contact networks, such as the presence of ‘superspreaders’, accelerates infectious disease spread in real epidemics. Disease control is also complicated by the continuous evolution of pathogens in response to changing environments and medical interventions. It remains unclear, however, how population structure influences these adaptive processes. Here we examine the evolution of infectious disease in empirical and theoretical networks. We show that the heterogeneity in contact structure, which facilitates the spread of a single disease, surprisingly renders a resident strain more resilient to invasion by new variants. Our results suggest that many host contact structures suppress invasion of new strains and may slow disease adaptation. These findings are important to the natural history of disease evolution and the spread of drug-resistant strains. The continual evolution of pathogens makes infectious disease control very challenging. Here the authors examine how host population structure influences disease evolution, and show that heterogeneous contact networks lower the fixation probability of newly arising pathogen strains.
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
Newman, M. E. J.
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.1999.0869
发表时间：
1999-10-07
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