Spatial distribution and risk factors of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in China.
Spatial distribution and risk factors of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in China.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.ppat.1001308
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发表时间：
2011-03
期刊：
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Gilbert M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Martin V;Pfeiffer DU;Zhou X;Xiao X;Prosser DJ;Guo F;Gilbert M
高致病性禽流感 (HPAI) H5N1 于 1996 年在中国广东省首次出现，并于 2004 年至 2006 年开始在整个亚洲和古北界西部传播。与其他几个对 HPAI H5N1 分布进行了详细研究的国家相比，人们对中国 HPAI H5N1 分布的环境相关性知之甚少。 HPAI H5N1 临床疾病暴发和从主动基于风险的家禽监测采样中分离出的 HPAI 病毒 (HPAIV) H5N1（在本手稿中称为 HPAIV H5N1 监测阳性）分别使用七个风险变量进行建模：鸡、家养水禽种群密度、水稻或地表水覆盖的土地比例、耕作强度、海拔和人口密度。我们使用引导逻辑回归和带有交叉验证的增强回归树 (BRT) 来确定每个变量的权重，评估模型的预测能力，并绘制 HPAI H5N1 风险的分布图。家禽HPAI H5N1临床疾病暴发主要与鸡群密度、人口密度和海拔有关。相比之下，基于风险的监测发现的 HPAIV H5N1 感染与家养水禽密度、人口密度以及地表水覆盖的土地比例相关。两种模型均具有较高的解释力（平均 AUC 范围为 0.864 至 0.967）。基于主动监测数据的HPAIV H5N1风险分布图强调了长江以南地区，而报告的疫情风险分布则进一步向北延伸，那里的家禽和人类密度更高。我们量化了 HPAI H5N1 疫情、HPAIV 分布和疫苗接种后血清阳性水平（已接种禽类的疫苗接种后有效血清转化百分比）之间的统计关联，发现 2007-2009 年爆发疫情或 HPAIV H5N1 监测呈阳性的省份似乎对疫苗接种的抗体反应较低。中国 HPAI H5N1 风险的分布在地理上似乎比之前评估的更为有限，这为更有针对性的监测和控制干预措施提供了前景。东南亚许多国家都对高致病性禽流感（HPAI）H5N1 的地理分布和农业生态危险因素进行了研究。然而，人们对其在中国的分布知之甚少，HPAI H5N1 于 1996 年首次出现，并在 2004 年至 2006 年进化并传播到整个亚洲和古北界西部。本研究分别分析了从基于风险的主动监测采样和 HPAI H5N1 临床疾病暴发中分离出的 HPAI 病毒 (HPAIV) H5N1 在家禽中的分布。这些数据根据鸡和家养水禽种群密度的分布、水稻或地表水覆盖的土地比例、耕作强度、海拔和人口密度进行分析。通过基于风险的监测发现 HPAI H5N1 病毒与家养水禽密度、人口密度以及地表水覆盖的土地比例相关。相比之下，HPAI H5N1临床疾病暴发主要与鸡密度、人口密度和低海拔有关。这些结果表明，中国 HPAI H5N1 风险的分布在地理上比之前评估的更为有限，这为更有针对性的监测和控制干预措施提供了前景。
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 was first encountered in 1996 in Guangdong province (China) and started spreading throughout Asia and the western Palearctic in 2004–2006. Compared to several other countries where the HPAI H5N1 distribution has been studied in some detail, little is known about the environmental correlates of the HPAI H5N1 distribution in China. HPAI H5N1 clinical disease outbreaks, and HPAI virus (HPAIV) H5N1 isolated from active risk-based surveillance sampling of domestic poultry (referred to as HPAIV H5N1 surveillance positives in this manuscript) were modeled separately using seven risk variables: chicken, domestic waterfowl population density, proportion of land covered by rice or surface water, cropping intensity, elevation, and human population density. We used bootstrapped logistic regression and boosted regression trees (BRT) with cross-validation to identify the weight of each variable, to assess the predictive power of the models, and to map the distribution of HPAI H5N1 risk. HPAI H5N1 clinical disease outbreak occurrence in domestic poultry was mainly associated with chicken density, human population density, and elevation. In contrast, HPAIV H5N1 infection identified by risk-based surveillance was associated with domestic waterfowl density, human population density, and the proportion of land covered by surface water. Both models had a high explanatory power (mean AUC ranging from 0.864 to 0.967). The map of HPAIV H5N1 risk distribution based on active surveillance data emphasized areas south of the Yangtze River, while the distribution of reported outbreak risk extended further North, where the density of poultry and humans is higher. We quantified the statistical association between HPAI H5N1 outbreak, HPAIV distribution and post-vaccination levels of seropositivity (percentage of effective post-vaccination seroconversion in vaccinated birds) and found that provinces with either outbreaks or HPAIV H5N1 surveillance positives in 2007–2009 appeared to have had lower antibody response to vaccination. The distribution of HPAI H5N1 risk in China appears more limited geographically than previously assessed, offering prospects for better targeted surveillance and control interventions. The geographical distribution of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and agro-ecological risk factors have been studied in a number of countries in Southeast Asia. However, little is know of its distribution in China where HPAI H5N1 first emerged in 1996, evolved, and spread throughout Asia and the western Palearctic in 2004–2006. This study analyzes separately the distribution, in domestic poultry, of HPAI virus (HPAIV) H5N1 isolated from active risk-based surveillance sampling and HPAI H5N1 clinical disease outbreaks. These data are analyzed in relation to the distribution of chicken and domestic waterfowl population density, proportion of land covered by rice or surface water, cropping intensity, elevation, and human population density. HPAI H5N1 viruses identified by risk-based surveillance are found to be associated with domestic waterfowl density, human population density, and the proportion of land covered by surface water. In contrast, HPAI H5N1 clinical disease outbreak occurrences were mainly associated with chicken density, human population density, and low elevation. These results show that the distribution of HPAI H5N1 risk in China appears more limited geographically than previously assessed, offering prospects for better targeted surveillance and control interventions.
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影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Paul M;Tavornpanich S;Abrial D;Gasqui P;Charras-Garrido M;Thanapongtharm W;Xiao X;Gilbert M;Roger F;Ducrot C
通讯作者：
Ducrot C
影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
5.7
作者：
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通讯作者：
Rogers, DJ
影响因子：
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作者：
Elith, J.;Leathwick, J. R.;Hastie, T.
通讯作者：
Hastie, T.