Incorporating anthropogenic variables into ecological niche modeling to predict areas of invasion of Popillia japonica
Incorporating anthropogenic variables into ecological niche modeling to predict areas of invasion of Popillia japonica
复制标题
将人为变量纳入生态位模型来预测金龟子入侵区域
DOI：
10.1007/s10340-016-0780-5
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发表时间：
2017-02
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
赵力
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
朱耿平;李慧琪;赵力
生态位保守性为生态位模型在生物入侵中的应用提供了支持，但人类干扰对生态位变化和模型预测的影响尚未得到充分认识。本研究从生态位未满、稳定和扩张三个方面对日本金龟子入侵过程中的气候生态位变化进行了研究。该甲虫可能经历生态位扩张，因为小的本地范围（日本）相对于广泛的入侵范围（北美）。研究了气候和人为因素及其相互作用在决定龟纹瓢虫扩散中的相对作用。结果表明，在日本落叶松入侵过程中，气候生态位保持了较好的保守性，生态位未被填满，而不是生态位扩大，说明日本落叶松入侵过程中有适宜的气候空间未被占据。将人为因素纳入气候生态位模型，提高了生态位模型在人类活动频繁地区的预测值。在粳稻入侵过程中，人为因素影响了气候生态位的表达，改变了气候适宜度的效应。在气候条件较差或不适宜的地区，人类活动促进了日本对虾的建立并发挥了协同作用，而在气候条件高度适宜的地区，人为因素降低了气候适宜性。这些发现对于我们在预测日本对虾入侵面积时了解气候生态位保守性和生态位模型可移植性至关重要，并且可以应用于其他地方来预测其他害虫的入侵潜力。
Niche conservatism providing support for using ecological niche modeling in biological invasions has been widely noticed; nonetheless, the impacts of human disturbance on niche changes and model predictions are not fully recognized. In this study, climate niche changes during the invasion of Japanese beetle (Popillia japonica) were studied under the framework of niche unfilling, stability, and expansion situations. The beetle might undergo niche expansion because of the small native range (Japan) relative to the broad invade range (North America). Relative roles of climatic and anthropogenic factors and their interactions in determining the spread of P. japonica were investigated. Results suggest that the climate niche was conserved during P. japonica invasion, climate niche unfilling rather than niche expansion was observed, suggesting there are suitable climate space remain unoccupied. Inclusion of anthropogenic factors into climate niche model has improved niche model prediction values in areas of high human activity. During P. japonica invasion, anthropogenic factors influenced the climate niche expression and altered the effect of climate suitability. In areas of poor or unsuitable climate, the human activities facilitated the establishment of P. japonica and functioned synergistically, whereas in highly suitable areas, including anthropogenic variables decreased climate suitability. These findings are pivotal to our understanding of climate niche conservatism and niche model transferability when predicting areas of invasion of P. japonica and can be applied elsewhere for predicting other pest’s invasion potential.
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影响因子：
4.8
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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作者：
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