Real-time species distribution models for conservation and management of natural resources in marine environments
Real-time species distribution models for conservation and management of natural resources in marine environments
复制标题
用于海洋环境自然资源保护和管理的实时物种分布模型
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Alex N. Banks
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. Skov;Stefan Heinänen;C. Thaxter;Adrian E. Williams;Sabine Lohier;Alex N. Banks
海洋环境中的物种分布模型通常使用静态变量，部分原因是精细分辨率动态预测变量和足够详细的物种丰度数据有限。我们的目的是通过结合高分辨率水动力模型、航空数字勘测和实时物种分布建模，在真实的时间内描述和量化海洋物种（海鸟）分布与其生境自然变化之间的动态耦合。我们使用了一个2步（三角洲）广义加法模型在500米的空间分辨率的评估和预测的变化模式的越冬红喉潜水员（RTD）Gavia stellata在外泰晤士河口，英国。我们的动态物种分布模型成功地解决了RTDs分布的主要振荡，并证实了它们与猎物相遇概率较高的锋区的紧密联系。在高密度区，相对模型标准误差（%）一般在30%以下。曲线下面积（AUC）值表明，该模型能够区分约75%的时间的存在与不存在。所获得的分布模型的预测能力使得准确识别RTD集中的区域成为可能。目视航空勘测和数字静止照片航空勘测之间的比较表明，尽管模式相似，但航空数字勘测通常记录的RTD密度明显高于目视航空勘测。这项研究表明，如何海洋分布模型与同化的栖息地变量，从一个良好的校准的高分辨率的水动力模型，再加上使用数字航空调查可以促进捕捉海鸟和它们的动态栖息地之间的详细关联。
Species distribution models in marine environments typically use static variables, partly due to the limited availability of fine-resolution dynamic predictor variables and sufficiently detailed species abundance data. Our aim was to describe and quantify the dynamic coupling between the distribution of marine species (seabirds) and the natural variability of their habitat in real time through the combination of a high-resolution hydrodynamic model, aerial digital surveys and real-time species distribution modelling. We used a 2-step (delta) generalized additive model at 500 m spatial resolution for assessment and prediction of the changing patterns of wintering red-throated divers (RTDs) Gavia stellata in the outer Thames estuary, United Kingdom. Our dynamic species distribution models successfully resolved the major oscillations in the distribution of RTDs and confirmed their tight association with frontal zones where the probability of prey encounter was higher. The relative model standard errors (%) were generally below 30% in the high-density areas. Area under the curve (AUC) values indicated that the models were capable of distinguishing presence from absence about 75% of the time. The predictive power of the achieved distribution models made it possible to accurately identify areas where RTDs were con- centrated. Comparisons between visual aerial and digital stills aerial surveys documented that, in spite of similar patterns, the aerial digital surveys generally recorded significantly higher densities of RTDs than the visual aerial surveys. This study demonstrates how marine distribution models with assimilation of habitat variables from a well-calibrated fine-resolution hydrodynamic model coupled with the use of digital aerial surveys can facilitate the capture of detailed associations between seabirds and their dynamic habitats.
影响因子：
5.7
作者：
Embling, Clare B.;Illian, Janine;Scott, Beth E.
通讯作者：
Scott, Beth E.