A feedback SIR (fSIR) model highlights advantages and limitations of infection-based social distancing
A feedback SIR (fSIR) model highlights advantages and limitations of infection-based social distancing
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反馈 SIR (fSIR) 模型强调了基于感染的社交距离的优点和局限性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Elisa Franco
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Elisa Franco
疫情暴发的传播率随时间变化，取决于社会和政府对感染和死亡数据的反应，新冠肺炎大流行过程就证明了这一点。遵循平均场方法，将个体模拟为混合良好的溶液中的分子，我得到了一个修正的SIR模型，在该模型中，根据已知的感染水平，易感人群和受感染人群之间的平均每日接触减少，捕捉到社会距离政策的影响。这种方法产生一个时变的繁殖数，通过一个负反馈项根据感染信息连续调整，这相当于生态学中的Holling II函数和化学和分子生物学中的Hill函数。这种传输速率的反馈调整导致感染峰值的结构性降低，并且模拟表明，即使在存在信息延迟的情况下，这种降低也持续存在。模拟还表明，基于感染数据的疏远政策可能会大大延长流行病的持续时间。如果距离比率与感染成线性正比，则该模型向原始SIR增加了一个参数，从而有助于说明基于对感染的认识而强制实施的社会距离的影响。
Transmission rates in epidemic outbreaks vary over time depending on the societal and government response to infections and mortality data, as evidenced in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Following a mean field approach that models individuals like molecules in a well-mixed solution, I derive a modified SIR model in which the average daily contacts between susceptible and infected population are reduced based on the known infection levels, capturing the effects of social distancing policies. This approach yields a time-varying reproduction number that is continuously adjusted based on infection information through a negative-feedback term that is equivalent to Holling type II functions in ecology and Hill functions in chemistry and molecular biology. This feedback-adjustment of the transmission rate causes a structural reduction in infection peak, and simulations indicate that such reduction persists even in the presence of information delays. Simulations also show that a distancing policy based on infection data may substantially extend the duration of an epidemic. If the distancing rate is linearly proportional to infections, this model adds a single parameter to the original SIR, making it useful to illustrate the effects of social distancing enforced based on awareness of infections.
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Kiss, Istvan Z.;Cassell, Jackie;Simon, Peter L.
通讯作者：
Simon, Peter L.