Future climate response to Antarctic Ice Sheet melt caused by anthropogenic warming.
Future climate response to Antarctic Ice Sheet melt caused by anthropogenic warming.
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DOI：
10.1126/sciadv.aaz1169
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发表时间：
2020-09
期刊：
影响因子：
13.6
通讯作者：
Pollard D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sadai S;Condron A;DeConto R;Pollard D
未来 250 年南极冰层流失将影响全球气候，影响变暖速度和冰盖稳定性。南极冰盖消退的融水和冰排放可能对未来的全球气候产生重要影响。在这里，我们报告了使用在未来温室气体排放情景 IPCC RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 下集成的耦合数值模型进行的多世纪（现在 - 2250 年）气候模拟，其中融水和冰排放由动态热力学冰盖模型提供。与忽略排放的模拟相比，考虑南极排放会使冰缘处的地下海洋温度升高 >1°C。相比之下，海冰扩大以及南大洋表面空气和表面海洋温度下降2°至10°C，将预计的全球平均人为变暖的增加推迟到2250年。此外，预计北极冬季海冰的消失和大西洋经向翻转环流的减弱也将推迟几十年。我们的结果表明，需要准确地考虑冰盖融水的输入，以便做出可靠的气候预测。
Antarctic ice loss over the next 250 years will affect global climate, influencing warming rates and ice sheet stability. Meltwater and ice discharge from a retreating Antarctic Ice Sheet could have important impacts on future global climate. Here, we report on multi-century (present–2250) climate simulations performed using a coupled numerical model integrated under future greenhouse-gas emission scenarios IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, with meltwater and ice discharge provided by a dynamic-thermodynamic ice sheet model. Accounting for Antarctic discharge raises subsurface ocean temperatures by >1°C at the ice margin relative to simulations ignoring discharge. In contrast, expanded sea ice and 2° to 10°C cooler surface air and surface ocean temperatures in the Southern Ocean delay the increase of projected global mean anthropogenic warming through 2250. In addition, the projected loss of Arctic winter sea ice and weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation are delayed by several decades. Our results demonstrate a need to accurately account for meltwater input from ice sheets in order to make confident climate predictions.
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影响因子：
64.8
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