Forecasting the effectiveness of indoor residual spraying for reducing dengue burden.
Forecasting the effectiveness of indoor residual spraying for reducing dengue burden.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0006570
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发表时间：
2018-06
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Longini IM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hladish TJ;Pearson CAB;Patricia Rojas D;Gomez-Dantes H;Halloran ME;Vazquez-Prokopec GM;Longini IM
从历史上看，蚊子控制计划成功地控制了疟疾和黄热病，但最近的努力未能阻止登革热、基孔肯雅热或寨卡病毒的传播，这些疾病都是由伊蚊传播的。利用登革热传播模型和室内滞留喷洒(IRS)现场试验的结果，我们调查了类似IRS的活动情景如何在流行环境中有效控制登革热。在我们的模型中，我们发现，在典型的登革热季节之前主动应用高水平的家庭覆盖(75%每年治疗一次)可以在第一年减少89.7%(1000个模拟的中位数；四分位数范围[IQR]：[83.0%，94.8%])，在年度计划的前五年累计减少78.2%(IQR：[71.2%，88.0%])。覆盖率越低，效果相应就越低，被动性运动也是如此。尽管不如预防性活动有效，但反应性干预措施甚至疫情后干预措施仍具有一定的有效性；这些活动扰乱了季节间传播，突出了淡季控制的机会。无论如何，没有一个竞选场景在两个赛季之后保持最初的有效性，相反，稳定在低得多的收益水平：在第20年，有效性的中位数只有27.3%(IQR：[-21.3%，56.6%])。此外，简单地停止一项最初成功的计划，就会使群体免疫力较低的人群暴露在同样的历史威胁之下，我们观察到的疫情比干预前的疫情大四倍以上。这些结果没有考虑到杀虫剂耐药性的演变，因此，如果不开发新的有效杀虫剂，长期有效性可能会较低。通过使用墨西哥尤卡坦州基于制剂的详细登革热传播模型，我们预测，如果在典型的季节性疫情高峰期前几个月应用高覆盖率室内残留喷洒(IRS)干预措施，可以在几年内基本上消除传播。然而，病媒控制通过预防感染而取得成功，这排除了自然免疫。因此，当一个种群从蚊子控制中受益时，它逐渐失去自然获得的群体免疫力，控制效果下降；这在我们所有的建模情景中都会发生，并与其他经验工作一致。保持早期有效性的长期控制将需要增加投资、补充干预措施(如接种疫苗)和广泛地区的控制计划的某种组合，以降低输入风险。利用对墨西哥尤卡坦州登革热的真实模拟，我们表明，如果主动应用，高覆盖率的室内残留喷洒(IRS)干预措施可以在几年内基本消除传播。然而，最初的成功依赖于人群水平的免疫，随着感染率的下降，人群水平的免疫力下降，因此模拟的IRS活动稳定在比最初观察到的效果低得多的水平。此外，如果一项活动突然停止，该模型预测会出现大规模疫情，直到人口免疫力恢复。这些结果表明，控制蚊子可以在流行环境中消灭蚊子，但必须取代自然感染，例如通过接种疫苗来实现这一目标。无论如何，早期竞选年的表现不能代表长期利益，而且竞选成本估计必须考虑到人口易感性的增加。
Historically, mosquito control programs successfully helped contain malaria and yellow fever, but recent efforts have been unable to halt the spread of dengue, chikungunya, or Zika, all transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. Using a dengue transmission model and results from indoor residual spraying (IRS) field experiments, we investigated how IRS-like campaign scenarios could effectively control dengue in an endemic setting. In our model, we found that high levels of household coverage (75% treated once per year), applied proactively before the typical dengue season could reduce symptomatic infections by 89.7% (median of 1000 simulations; interquartile range [IQR]:[83.0%, 94.8%]) in year one and 78.2% (IQR: [71.2%, 88.0%]) cumulatively over the first five years of an annual program. Lower coverage had correspondingly lower effectiveness, as did reactive campaigns. Though less effective than preventative campaigns, reactive and even post-epidemic interventions retain some effectiveness; these campaigns disrupt inter-seasonal transmission, highlighting an off-season control opportunity. Regardless, none of the campaign scenarios maintain their initial effectiveness beyond two seasons, instead stabilizing at much lower levels of benefit: in year 20, median effectiveness was only 27.3% (IQR: [-21.3%, 56.6%]). Furthermore, simply ceasing an initially successful program exposes a population with lowered herd immunity to the same historical threat, and we observed outbreaks more than four-fold larger than pre-intervention outbreaks. These results do not take into account evolving insecticide resistance, thus long-term effectiveness may be lower if new, efficacious insecticides are not developed. Using a detailed agent-based dengue transmission model for Yucatán State, Mexico, we predict that high coverage indoor residual spraying (IRS) interventions can largely eliminate transmission for a few years, when applied a few months before the typical seasonal epidemic peak. However, vector control succeeds by preventing infections, which precludes natural immunization. Thus, as a population benefits from mosquito control, it gradually loses naturally acquired herd immunity, and the control effectiveness declines; this occurs across all of our modeled scenarios, and is consistent with other empirical work. Long term control that maintains early effectiveness would require some combination of increasing investment, complementary interventions such as vaccination, and control programs across a broad region to diminish risk of importation. Using realistic simulation of dengue in the state of Yucatán, Mexico, we show high coverage indoor residual spraying (IRS) interventions can largely eliminate transmission for a few years, when applied proactively. However, initial success relies on population-level immunity, which declines with reduced infection rates, so simulated IRS campaigns stabilize at much lower effectiveness than initially observed. Moreover, if a campaign then suddenly stops, the model predicts large outbreaks until population immunity recovers. These results suggest that mosquito control could enable elimination in endemic settings, but that natural infections must be replaced, e.g. with vaccination, to achieve that end. Regardless, early campaign years’ performance cannot be assumed representative of longterm benefit, and campaign cost estimates must account for increasing population susceptibility.
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影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Achee NL;Gould F;Perkins TA;Reiner RC Jr;Morrison AC;Ritchie SA;Gubler DJ;Teyssou R;Scott TW
通讯作者：
Scott TW
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Hladish, Thomas J.;Pearson, Carl A. B.;Longini, Ira M.
通讯作者：
Longini, Ira M.
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Metsky, Hayden C.;Matranga, Christian B.;Sabeti, Pardis C.
通讯作者：
Sabeti, Pardis C.
Sanofi-Pasteur登革热疫苗的好处和风险：建模最佳部署。
DOI：
10.1126/science.aaf9590
发表时间：
2016-09-02
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Ferguson NM;Rodríguez-Barraquer I;Dorigatti I;Mier-Y-Teran-Romero L;Laydon DJ;Cummings DA
通讯作者：
Cummings DA
影响因子：
15.8
作者：
Morrison AC;Zielinski-Gutierrez E;Scott TW;Rosenberg R
通讯作者：
Rosenberg R