Considering observed and future nonstationarities in statistical downscaling of Mediterranean precipitation
Considering observed and future nonstationarities in statistical downscaling of Mediterranean precipitation
复制标题
考虑地中海降水统计降尺度中观察到的和未来的非平稳性
DOI：
10.1007/s00704-014-1314-9
复制
发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
J. Jacobeit
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hertig;J. Jacobeit
在明确考虑非平稳性的情况下，对21世纪世纪地中海地区的冬季降水进行了统计缩减。非定常性是由于大气环流的显著变化而引起的，它导致了区域降水特征的显著变化。为了检测观测期间大尺度环流和区域降水之间关系的非平稳性，将潜在非平稳条件下的统计模型性能与平稳性下的模型性能进行了比较。为了解释未来预测中的非平稳性，还分析了用于降尺度降水的大气环流模式（GCM）输出的环流特征。GCM和观测到的环流特征的对应关系被用来专门选择合适的降尺度模型。统计模型的性能受到非平稳性，这是最明显的，不仅在地中海东北部地区，而且在地中海西部北非。此外，人们发现，用于预测的GCM数据的变异性至少与观测期间所见的一样大。这一发现强调，需要明确考虑统计降尺度的非平稳性。作为降尺度的结果，我们主要获得了降雨概率的降低，并且主要获得了直到21世纪末地中海地区大部分地区75%至95%分位数变化的相当无关紧要的模式。然而，由于非平稳性，结果强烈依赖于所考虑的特定时间段。
Winter precipitation in the Mediterranean area for the twenty-first century was statistically downscaled under the explicit consideration of nonstationarities. Nonstationarities arise from substantial modifications of the atmospheric circulation, which lead to significant changes of regional precipitation characteristics. For the detection of nonstationarities in the relationships of the large-scale circulation and regional precipitation in the observational period, statistical model performance under potentially nonstationary conditions was compared to model performance under stationarity. To account for nonstationarity in the future projections, circulation characteristics in general circulation model (GCM) output used to downscale precipitation were also analysed. The correspondence of GCM and observed circulation characteristics was used to specifically select appropriate downscaling models. Statistical model performance was affected by nonstationarities, which was most pronounced not only in the north-eastern Mediterranean regions but also in western Mediterranean North Africa. Furthermore, it was found that variability in the GCM data used for the projections is at least as large as seen in the observational period. This finding underlines the need to explicitly take nonstationarities in statistical downscaling into account. As downscaling result we obtain mainly a reduction of the probability of rain and a rather indifferent pattern regarding the change of the 75 % up to the 95 % quantiles for most regions of the Mediterranean area until the end of the twenty-first century were mainly obtained. However, due to the nonstationarities, results depend strongly on the specific time periods under consideration.
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DOI：
--
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
Y. Tramblay;S. E. Adlouni;E. Servat
通讯作者：
E. Servat
全球变化：所有人都有足够的水吗？
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
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作者：
J. Lozan;H. Grassl;P. Hupfer;L. Menzel;C. Schönwiese
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C. Schönwiese
未来气候变化下地中海地区极端降水指数统计模型
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
E. Hertig;S. Seubert;A. Paxian;G. Vogt;H. Paeth;J. Jacobeit
通讯作者：
J. Jacobeit
地中海降雨变化及其原因
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
H. Grassl;P.;Hupfer;L. Menzel
通讯作者：
L. Menzel
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Hertig, E.;Jacobeit, J.
通讯作者：
Jacobeit, J.