Spatial analysis and simulation of extreme coastal flooding scenarios for national-scale emergency planning
Spatial analysis and simulation of extreme coastal flooding scenarios for national-scale emergency planning
复制标题
国家级应急计划中极端沿海洪水情景的空间分析和模拟
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Hammond
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Wyncoll;I. Haigh;B. Gouldby;D. Hames;Stefan Laeger;A. Wall;P. Hawkes;A. Hammond
英国有着悠久的沿海洪水历史，由大规模的低压天气系统驱动，可能导致大面积的洪水。然而，传统的沿海洪水风险分析往往是在局部范围内进行的，因此没有考虑大面积同时发生洪水的可能性。2013/2014年冬季英国境内的洪水值得注意，因为其持续时间长（持续两个多月），而且其空间范围广，影响了英格兰和威尔士的许多不同地区。因此，很明显，要规划和准备这些类型的极端事件，有必要考虑洪水事件在不同地点同时发生的可能性（即考虑极端洪水事件的空间依赖性）。本文介绍了一个国家的最先进的多元极值方法的极端海平面和波浪条件的英格兰和威尔士海岸周围的应用。分析的输出包括一组合成的极端但合理的事件，明确地捕捉在海岸周围不同空间位置的海况之间的依赖性。这些模拟的极端事件可用于应急管理和高级洪水风险分析。
The UK has a long history of coastal flooding, driven by large-scale low-pressure weather systems which can result in flooding over large spatial areas. Traditional coastal flood risk analysis is, however, often undertaken at local scales and hence does not consider the likelihood of simultaneous flooding over larger areas. The flooding within the UK over the Winter of 2013/2014 was notable both for its long duration, lasting over two months, and its spatial extent, affecting many different areas of England and Wales. It is thus apparent that to plan and prepare for these types of extreme event it is necessary to consider the likelihood of flood events arising at different locations simultaneously (i.e. to consider the spatial dependence of extreme flood events). This paper describes the application of a state-of-the-art multivariate extreme value methodology to extreme sea levels and wave conditions around the coast of England and Wales. The output of the analysis comprises a synthetic set of extreme but plausible events that explicitly captures the dependence between sea conditions at different spatial locations around the coast. These simulated extreme events can be used for emergency management and advanced flood risk analysis.
影响因子：
4.1
作者：
D. Wyncoll;B. Gouldby
通讯作者：
D. Wyncoll;B. Gouldby