Exchange Rate Reconnect

Exchange Rate Reconnect
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汇率重新连接

DOI:
10.1162/rest_a_00978
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发表时间:
2022
期刊:
The Review of Economics and Statistics
影响因子:
--
通讯作者:
Schreger, Jesse
Schreger, Jesse
中科院分区:
--
文献类型:
--
作者:
Lilley, Andrew;Maggiori, Matteo;Neiman, Brent;Schreger, Jesse

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很难找到与汇率密切相关的经济变量,这一现象在大量文献中被称为“汇率脱节”。我们证明,各种常见的代理全球风险偏好,不comove与汇率在2007年之前,提供了显着的样本解释力的货币自那时以来。此外,在2007-2012年期间,美国购买外国债券与这些风险指标和汇率高度相关。我们的研究结果支持了美元作为国际和避险货币的角色自全球金融危机以来已经飙升的说法。
It is surprisingly difficult to find economic variables that strongly comove with exchange rates, a phenomenon codified in a large literature as “exchange rate disconnect.” We demonstrate that a variety of common proxies for global risk appetite, which did not comove with exchange rates prior to 2007, have provided significant in-sample explanatory power for currencies since then. Furthermore, during the 2007–2012 period, U.S. purchases of foreign bonds were highly correlated with these risk measures and with exchange rates. Our results support the narrative that the U.S. dollar's role as an international and safe-haven currency has surged since the global financial crisis.
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