Resilience evaluation methodology of engineering systems with dynamic-Bayesian-network-based degradation and maintenance

Resilience evaluation methodology of engineering systems with dynamic-Bayesian-network-based degradation and maintenance
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基于动态贝叶斯网络的退化和维护的工程系统弹性评估方法

DOI:
10.1016/j.ress.2021.107464
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发表时间:
2021
影响因子:
8.1
通讯作者:
Liu Jing
Liu Jing
中科院分区:
工程技术1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Cai Baoping;Zhang Yanping;Wang Haifeng;Liu Yonghong;Ji Renjie;Gao Chuntan;Kong Xiangdi;Liu Jing

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人们提出了许多弹性评估方法来评估特定的、持续的灾害影响下的系统弹性,但这些方法受到固定的外部灾害的限制。提出了一种结合马尔可夫模型和动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)的新型评估方法,适用于各种外部灾害影响下的复原力评估。通过影响因素的实际物理模型映射建立外部灾难模型,根据建立的灾难模型得到单个部件的故障率,通过马尔可夫模型和DBNs相结合得到系统性能,最后通过性能曲线的积分计算弹性值。以海底防喷器供电和控制系统为例演示了该评估方法的应用。
Many resilience evaluation methods were proposed to assess system resilience under the influence of specific, constant disasters, and these methods are restricted by fixed external disasters. A novel evaluation methodology combining Markov model and dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) is developed, and is suitable for resilience evaluation under the influence of various external disasters. The external disaster model is established by mapping from actual physical models of influencing factors, the failure rate of a single component is obtained from the established disaster model, the system performance is obtained through the combination of Markov model and DBNs, and the resilience value is finally calculated through the integral of the performance curve. An example of power supply and control systems of subsea blowout preventers demonstrates the application of the evaluation methodology.
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