Towards a GME ensemble forecasting system: Ensemble initialization using the breeding technique
Towards a GME ensemble forecasting system: Ensemble initialization using the breeding technique
复制标题
迈向 GME 集合预报系统：使用育种技术进行集合初始化
DOI：
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Rhodin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Keller;L. Kornblueh;A. Hense;A. Rhodin
降水的定量预报需要概率背景，特别是对于超过 3 天的预报提前期。由于只有集合模拟才能提供潜在概率密度函数的有用信息，因此我们基于德国气象局（DWD）的GME模型构建了新的集合预报系统（GME-EFS）。为了生成适当的初始集合扰动，我们选择了 TOTH 和 KALNAY（1993，1997）开发的育种技术，该技术通过估计最大模型误差引起的不确定性区域来开发扰动。该方法在 2007 年三个月的准业务预报框架中进行了应用和测试。通过自由大气参数（位势和温度）的集合分布和降水预报的集合技能，将所得集合预报的性能与业务集合预报系统 ECMWF EPS 和 NCEP GFS 进行了比较。这一比较表明，GME 集合预报系统 (GME-EFS) 提供了合理的预报，其传播技能得分与 NCEP GFS 相当。对连续排名概率得分的分析表明，与业务集合相比，GME 预测缺乏分辨率。然而，随着 3 个月测试期间的显着增强，我们与 GME-EFS 合作的第一个结果表明了进一步开发的可能性以及以后操作使用的潜力。
The quantitative forecast of precipitation requires a probabilistic background particularly with regard to forecast lead times of more than 3 days. As only ensemble simulations can provide useful information of the underlying probability density function, we built a new ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS) based on the GMEmodel of the GermanMeteorological Service (DWD). For the generation of appropriate initial ensemble perturbations we chose the breeding technique developed by TOTH and KALNAY (1993, 1997), which develops perturbations by estimating the regions of largest model error induced uncertainty. This method is applied and tested in the framework of quasi-operational forecasts for a three month period in 2007. The performance of the resulting ensemble forecasts are compared to the operational ensemble prediction systems ECMWF EPS and NCEP GFS by means of ensemble spread of free atmosphere parameters (geopotential and temperature) and ensemble skill of precipitation forecasting. This comparison indicates that the GME ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS) provides reasonable forecasts with spread skill score comparable to that of the NCEP GFS. An analysis with the continuous ranked probability score exhibits a lack of resolution for the GME forecasts compared to the operational ensembles. However, with significant enhancements during the 3 month test period, the first results of our work with the GME-EFS indicate possibilities for further development as well as the potential for later operational usage.
DOI：
10.1175/2008bams2367.1
发表时间：
2008-10
期刊：
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影响因子：
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作者：
V. Wulfmeyer;A. Behrendt;H. Bauer;C. Kottmeier;U. Corsmeier;A. Blyth;G. Craig;U. Schumann;M. Hagen;S. Crewell;P. Girolamo;C. Flamant;M. Miller;A. Montani;S. Mobbs;E. Richard;M. Rotach;M. Arpagaus;H. Russchenberg;P. Schlüssel;M. König;V. Gärtner;R. Steinacker;M. Dorninger;D. Turner;T. Weckwerth;A. Hense;C. Simmer
通讯作者：
V. Wulfmeyer;A. Behrendt;H. Bauer;C. Kottmeier;U. Corsmeier;A. Blyth;G. Craig;U. Schumann;M. Hagen;S. Crewell;P. Girolamo;C. Flamant;M. Miller;A. Montani;S. Mobbs;E. Richard;M. Rotach;M. Arpagaus;H. Russchenberg;P. Schlüssel;M. König;V. Gärtner;R. Steinacker;M. Dorninger;D. Turner;T. Weckwerth;A. Hense;C. Simmer
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
P. Friederichs;A. Hense
通讯作者：
P. Friederichs;A. Hense