Is Automation Labor Share-Displacing? Productivity Growth, Employment, and the Labor Share
Is Automation Labor Share-Displacing? Productivity Growth, Employment, and the Labor Share
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自动化正在取代劳动力份额吗？
DOI：
10.1353/eca.2018.0000
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
A. Salomons
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
David Autor;A. Salomons
摘要：许多技术革新用机器代替了工人。但这种资本-劳动力替代并不一定会降低总劳动力需求，因为它同时引发了四种相反的反应：本行业产出效应；跨行业投入产出效应；产业间的变化;以及最终的需求效应。我们使用四十年来统一的跨国和行业数据来量化这些渠道，通过这些数据，我们将自动化衡量为各国普遍存在的全要素生产率的行业级运动。我们发现，自动化取代了就业，并降低了劳动力在其起源行业中所占的增加值份额（直接影响）。在就业的情况下，这些本行业的损失被客户行业的间接收益和总需求的增加所逆转。相比之下，本行业的劳动力份额损失无法在其他地方得到弥补。我们的框架可以解释过去三十年来各行业就业再分配和劳动收入占比总体下降的很大一部分。然而，这并不能解释为什么劳动收入占比在本世纪头十年下降得更快。
ABSTRACT:Many technological innovations replace workers with machines. But this capital-labor substitution need not reduce aggregate labor demand, because it simultaneously induces four countervailing responses: own-industry output effects; cross-industry input-output effects; between-industry shifts; and final demand effects. We quantify these channels using four decades of harmonized cross-country and industry data, whereby we measure automation as industry-level movements in total factor productivity that are common across countries. We find that automation displaces employment and reduces labor's share of value added in the industries where it originates (a direct effect). In the case of employment, these own-industry losses are reversed by indirect gains in customer industries and induced increases in aggregate demand. By contrast, own-industry labor share losses are not recouped elsewhere. Our framework can account for a substantial fraction of the reallocation of employment across industries and the aggregate fall in the labor share over the last three decades. It does not, however, explain why the labor share fell more rapidly during the 2000s.
影响因子：
8.2
作者：
Acemoglu, Daron;Restrepo, Pascual
通讯作者：
Restrepo, Pascual